\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Events
On April 28, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. 21. The annual revenue reached 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 87.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.7%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue was 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94.5%.
Business analysis
The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the short-term rhythm may be disturbed. Considering that the revenue of 21q4 + 22q1 increased by 53% at the same time, the trend of high growth continues. However, the rhythm of short-term operation is still disturbed by the epidemic: 1) the monthly revenue in March was 290 million yuan (+ 6%); Net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 60 million (- 15%); 2) 22at the end of Q1, the advance collection was 780 million yuan, a month on month increase of – 780 million yuan (- 50%), a year-on-year increase of + 130 million yuan (+ 19%); 3) The sales revenue is 940 million yuan (+ 17%), and the growth rate is slower than the revenue end. On the product side, the internal reference / drunkard two wheel drive increased rapidly, and the revenue in 21 years increased by 81% / 89% respectively. 1) Within 22 years, it has participated in the sales caliber planning of 2.45 ~ 3 billion yuan, the central growth rate is about 50%, and the strategy is mainly based on price stabilization and increment; 22q1 is expected to deliver about 40%, and the sales caliber is expected to account for about 40%. 2) The sales caliber of drunkard 22q1 is expected to account for about 50%. According to the feedback from hongtan channel, a single team is set up to operate banquets and core terminals, and the growth rate in 22 years may reach 30%.
The improvement of profitability is partly due to the rhythm difference of expenses between quarters. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 22q1 was 30.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.3pct, mainly due to: 1) the gross profit margin was + 0.4pct to 79.8%, and it is expected that the performance of the internal parameters of the system is relatively good, driving the structural optimization; 2) The sales expense ratio is – 0.4pct to 21.8%. Relatively speaking, under the internal sales company mode, the expense investment will be more flexible; 3) The rate of administrative expenses is -1.7pct, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges is + 0.8pct. It is expected to be the rhythm difference confirmed between quarters.
At present, the company is involved in the drunkard two wheel drive, the high-end price band of the internal reference card position enhances the brand power, and the drunkard locates the secondary high-end. The medium and long-term strategy focuses on building core large single products, and the measures include channel control, product upgrading, etc. On the channel side, in the past 21 years, the number of contracted customers of the company increased by 60%, the number of core outlets increased by 137%, the number of specialty stores increased by 134%, the coverage rate of prefecture level cities nationwide was 67%, and the coverage rate of county-level cities in the province was 94%. The channel layout has achieved remarkable results. With the in-depth dynamic sales + national layout, the target revenue is 10 billion by the end of the 14th five year plan.
Investment advice
In view of the slight disturbance of movable sales under external risks, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company by 6% / 8% in 22 / 23 years respectively. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is 53% / 36% / 29% respectively, EPS is 4.20/5.69/7.35 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 37 / 27 / 21x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, structural upgrading less than expected, food safety problems.
