\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 816 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) )
The disturbance of the epidemic led to a year-on-year decline in 22q1 profit
Under the influence of the Yangtze River Delta epidemic, the company's 22q1 operating revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to 5.679 billion yuan; However, the cost side is relatively rigid, and the operating cost still increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 4.479 billion yuan. Finally, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%. The impact of the epidemic is basically in line with the expected performance.
At the traffic volume end, there is still room for short-term epidemic disturbance in the medium and long term
For short-term traffic volume, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the capital in the first and second quarters of 2022 is still disturbed, but the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 has stressed the need to minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development, and pay attention to the epidemic control measures in the follow-up. In the medium and long term, there is still room for growth in Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) traffic volume after the epidemic, and the growth of traffic volume will be mainly driven by three aspects: 1) the operation of Changbian Fuxing; 2) Weaving density at departure time; 3) Optimize the cross line vehicle structure of this line and improve the matching efficiency of train numbers.
At the freight rate side, the expected elasticity is gradually released
Since December 2020, the company has started the floating fare mechanism and implemented the five grade fare and fast and slow train system as a whole; In June 2021, seven levels of fares will be further implemented, and the fast and slow train system and peak valley system will be implemented at the same time; From March 2022, the number of tickets will be purchased, and the degree of marketization of ticket prices will be further liberalized. We believe that the subjective conditions for the marketization of the company's ticket price have been met. If the market demand tends to be strong after the end of the epidemic, the overall rate will maintain a good trend, and the ticket price elasticity is expected to be further released.
The cost side is relatively controllable, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase are continuously promoted
In terms of entrusted transportation management fees (accounting for 26.8% of operating costs in 2021), the settlement unit price is based on the unit price in 2021. It is estimated that the annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.275% on the basis of the previous year (6.5% on the basis of the previous year from 2019 to 2021).
In terms of energy expenditure (accounting for 15.7% of operating costs in 2021), the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Power in January 2022 to jointly explore power market-oriented cooperation, or is expected to maintain the stability of operating power volume and price; In addition, expand the scope of contract energy management and extend the experience of contract energy management of Nanjing South Railway Station to the pilot of Tianjin west railway station and Zaozhuang railway station.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 5.986 billion yuan, 11.495 billion yuan and 13.022 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 37.7 times, 19.6 times and 17.3 times of the current share price PE respectively. Still pay attention to the medium and long-term volume and price growth space of the company and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: repeated disturbance of epidemic situation; The loss reduction of Jingfu Anhui was less than expected; The recovery of passenger flow was less than expected.
