\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Events
In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.832 billion yuan (+ 17.12%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan (+ 15.33%); The non net profit deducted was 335 million yuan (+ 15.47%).
Comments
Wusu leads the large quantity of single products and accelerates the upgrading of high-end products
The company’s 22q1 revenue performance maintained a rapid growth and achieved a simultaneous rise in volume and price: 22q1 achieved a sales volume of 794200 kiloliters, an increase of 11.70%, and the ton price was 4826 yuan / kiloliter, an increase of 4.89%. Specifically: 1) accelerated upgrading of high-end products: 22q1 achieved high-end, mainstream and economic income of 1.374 billion yuan, 1.991 billion yuan and 395 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.04%, 13.17% and 12.84%, and the proportion of high-end products increased by 2.11 percentage points. 2) Continued large volume of large single products: ① Wusu: the sales volume of Wusu in 22q1 increased by 17%, of which the sales volume outside Xinjiang increased by 19%. Although the epidemic repeatedly led to the channel inventory higher than the normal level, considering that the shipment in Fujian has been normal, the inventory digestion in East China will be promoted by increasing costs at the end of April and early May, and it is expected that Wusu is still expected to achieve high growth throughout the year; ② Others: 1664 achieved double-digit strong growth. The mainstream products represented by Chongqing and Lebao achieved benign growth while improving the structure, demonstrating that the company maintained rapid growth under the drive of Wusu.
The strong market is less affected by the epidemic, and the plan for big cities continues to be promoted
22q1 northwest, central and southern regions achieved revenue of 1.196, 1.661 and 904 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.96%, 20.68% and 14.13%. The revenue proportion of northwest, central and southern regions increased by -0.81, 1.39 and -0.58pct. 1) Impact of the epidemic: the affected areas of the epidemic are concentrated in coastal areas such as East China, South China, Northeast China and Shandong. The demand in the southwest and northwest of the traditional strong market remains strong. East China and South China are the key areas planned to be developed by big cities. At the same time, about 60% of the increment outside wusujiang comes from East China and South China; 2) Big city plan: 15 big cities will be added to 76 big cities this year. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the company will make corresponding adjustments to the focus of the big city plan in different regions. 22q1 company has a net decrease of 416 dealers to 3096, mainly due to the change of system gauge caliber.
The increase in freight costs led to a slight decline in gross profit margin, and the price increase and price lock-in responded to the upward cost
22q1 gross profit margin and net profit attributable to the parent company changed by -0.18, – 0.14pct to 47.68% and 8.89% year-on-year, and the ton cost increased by 5.22% to 2525 yuan / kiloliter. The slight decrease in gross profit rate is mainly due to the increase in transportation costs. The increase in transportation costs is mainly due to the smooth development of the market in East and South China and the continuous promotion of nationalization + the rise in oil prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. With the landing of new production capacity in East and South China, the transportation costs will be alleviated. In the past 22 years, the cost of raw barley, aluminum cans and other packaging materials still showed an upward trend, and the company took many measures to resist the upward cost: 1) price increase: the company has raised the price of Wusu outside Xinjiang in February 22, with an increase range of about 5% – 6%, and the overall increase range is 4% – 8%. The increase range is different due to products, markets and channels. 2) Other measures: the company has locked the annual barley price, the price locking cycle of packaging materials is short, and the supply chain is optimized to save costs.
The impact of epidemic situation and cost is limited, and it is optimistic that the strong development trend will continue in 22 years
Although the short-term epidemic has had a certain impact on the current drinking scene in East China and other places, with the improvement of epidemic control, it is expected that the current drinking scene will be gradually liberalized and compensatory consumption is expected. At the same time, the company will resolve the impact of the epidemic by expanding non current drinking channels and adjusting the focus of big city plans. At the same time, with the empowerment of product upgrading + structural optimization + precision marketing + price increase outside Xinjiang + capacity expansion, Wusu is still expected to maintain high growth in 22 years. We suggest paying attention to the repair opportunities of beer sector brought by the recovery of catering industry chain after the epidemic, and optimistic about the strong development of the company in 22 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that the implementation of Yangfan 27 strategy is beneficial to the long-term development of the company, with limited impact of the epidemic in the short term. We pay attention to the epidemic control process. In the future, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) will benefit from the excellent performance of Wusu Beer, accelerated national expansion, coordinated development of multiple brands and continuous expansion of production capacity. It is expected that the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.1%, 15.0% and 14.5% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.0%, 24.7% and 20.2% respectively; EPS is 3.0 / 3.8 / 4.5 yuan / share respectively; PE is 42 / 34 / 28 times respectively. In the long run, the performance has strong growth, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: the upgrading of consumption continues and the nationalization of USSR develops smoothly.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in China broke out again, affecting the overall dynamic sales of beer; The situation of Wusu movable sales was less than expected.
