\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 021 Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 10.9 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 39 million, turning losses into profits year-on-year, which was lower than the median of the performance pre profit range; The net loss of deduction from non return to parent company was 110 million, which was significantly lower than that in the same period of the previous year (loss of 800 million), which was higher than the median of the performance pre loss range. In the first quarter of the year, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.36 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, realized a net loss attributable to the parent of 440 million, an increase of 150 million over the same period of the previous year (loss of 290 million), and realized a net loss deducting non attributable to the parent of 460 million, an increase of 150 million over the same period of the previous year (loss of 310 million).
Ask of the company rebounded in 21 years and declined slightly in the first quarter of 22 years. In 2021, the company’s available seat kilometers (ask) increased by 9.6% compared with the same period in 2020 and decreased by 5.1% compared with the same period in 19. Among them, China’s passenger transport demand recovered well. In 21 years, the ask of Chinese routes increased by 17.4% compared with the same period in 2020 and 47.0% compared with the same period in 19 years; The supply and demand of overseas airlines are still at a low level. The ask of international routes and regional routes in 21 years decreased by 98.7% and 91.7% respectively compared with 19 years. The company’s comprehensive passenger seat rate in 21 years was 82.9%, an increase of 3.2pct compared with 2020 and a decrease of 7.9pct compared with 19 years. The company operated 113 passenger planes at the end of December of 21, an increase of 10.8% over the end of 20, higher than the growth rate of the same period last year (9.7%). In the first quarter of 2022, ask decreased by 0.12% year-on-year and recovered to 97.5% in the same period of 19 years. The overall seating rate was about 72.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3pct.
The revenue of passenger kilometers increased, and the passenger revenue increased year-on-year. In 21 years, the company’s revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.306 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, of which the revenue per passenger kilometer in China, regions and international changed by + 8.4%, – 31.4% and + 288% respectively year-on-year. Under the influence of comprehensive volume and price, the company achieved a passenger revenue of 10.52 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7%.
The sharp rise in oil prices had a negative impact, and refined management promoted the improvement of gross profit margin. The rental depreciation cost of the company’s 21 year cost items was about 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; Among the financial expenses, the interest expense of new lease liabilities is about 250 million yuan. After simply calculating the impact of operating leases, the company’s depreciation, maintenance and financial expenses (excluding exchange gains and losses) in 21 years totaled about 2.9 billion yuan, unchanged year-on-year. The sharp rise in international oil prices in the past 21 years has put great pressure on the company’s operating costs. The company’s aviation fuel costs in the past 21 years have increased by 46.6% year-on-year, accounting for about 30% of its main operating costs. Although the overall unit cost of the company increased by 3.6% year-on-year in 21 years due to the rise of oil price and the gradual withdrawal of supporting policies, benefiting from the advantages of fine management, the unit non oil cost of the company (considering the adjustment of new leasing standards) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in 21 years. Based on the above, the company’s main operating cost increased by 13.6% year-on-year in 21 years, lower than the increase of revenue. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for 21 years was – 4.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1pct.
Investment suggestions: the company has obvious competitive advantages, the delivery of transportation capacity has recovered rapidly, and the unit non oil cost has decreased year-on-year, promoting the recovery of profitability; In addition, the company continues to maintain a positive expansion strategy (it is proposed to increase by no more than 3.5 billion yuan for the purchase of aircraft). With the recovery of aviation demand in the future, the profitability of the company will recover rapidly, and the growth will be gradually reflected. Considering that the covid-19 epidemic lasted longer than expected and the recovery rhythm of the company’s profits may be delayed, we lowered the company’s 22-year net profit forecast by 42% to 480 million yuan, raised the 23-year net profit forecast by 27% to 1.82 billion yuan, and added 2.55 billion yuan in 2024; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the duration and scope of covid-19 pneumonia exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn affects aviation demand; The hourly capacity of the airport increases slowly; The passenger throughput of overseas routes increased slowly
