\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 392 Beijing Lier High-Temperature Materials Co.Ltd(002392) )
The company issued the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. 21fy company’s revenue is 4.91 billion, yoy + 14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 400 million, yoy-12%. Including 21q4 revenue of 1.12 billion, yoy + 2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 15 million, yoy-82%. 22q1’s revenue is 1.16 billion, yoy-5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 70 million, yoy-37%.
The results of 21q4 and 22q1 were lower than the previous expectations, reflecting the pressure on the cost side and the slight weakness of downstream demand. The lower reaches of steel dragged down the revenue growth of 21q4 / 22q1, which was slightly weak, and the profitability of 22q1 showed signs of improvement
21q4 and 22q1 revenue growth is slightly weak, which is speculated to be related to the relatively low operating rate of major downstream steel enterprises. According to the business of 21fy, the income from refractory and other businesses was 3.58 billion and 1.33 billion respectively, yoy + 1% and + 73% (vs21h1 + 5% and + 100% respectively). The income from 21h2 refractory slowed down further. In terms of the revenue of refractory business, the revenue of 21fy whole package and direct sales model is + 4% and – 13% respectively, and the revenue of whole package of refractory business accounts for + 2.4pct to 85.5%. Metallurgical charge revenue increased rapidly.
21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 18.5%, yoy-3.3pct; The gross profit margins of 21q4 and 22q1 were 9.6% and 16.2% respectively. The price fluctuation of raw materials such as energy and magnesia has put pressure on the profit margin at this stage, and the 22q1 margin has begun to improve. We speculate that it is due to the upward adjustment of the settlement price of some contracts. The gross profit margins of 21fy refractories and other businesses were 23.8% and 4.1% (vs21h1 27.3% and 3.2% respectively), yoy – 2.2 and + 2.5pct respectively. Expense control continued to improve efficiency, and the turnover of two funds slowed down slightly, which increased the drag of impairment. 21fy company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is 8.1%, yoy-2.5pct; 21q4 and 22q1 are 1.3% and 6.1% respectively. An effective regression has been observed for the profit margin level of 21q1.
The balance sheet is still solid, and the cash flow stage is under pressure
22q1 company’s asset liability ratio was 31.0%, yoy-2.4pct, the debt ratio remained at a low level and decreased slightly, and the scale of interest bearing liabilities further decreased. The inventory turnover days of 21fy and 22q1 companies are 94 and 111 days respectively, yoy + 6 and + 22 days respectively. It is speculated that the slow inventory turnover is mainly due to the weak downstream demand stage; The turnover days of accounts receivable are 100 and 139 days, yoy + 8 and + 37 days respectively, and the accounting period has been extended to a certain extent. The net cash flow from operating activities of 21fy company was – 20 million, an increase of 80 million year-on-year. The pressure of cash flow also proves that the prosperity of the industry is at a low stage.
Industry differentiation or intensification, the company’s share promotion rhythm is expected to accelerate, and maintain the “buy” rating
The overall benefits of the refractory industry are under great pressure, the industry differentiation or intensification, and the supply pattern is expected to accelerate the optimization. As one of the largest steel refractory whole contractors in China, the company’s share increase rhythm or marginal acceleration, the company’s 25-year “three hundred” strategic goal is firmly promoted, and the growth space is wide and the pace may be accelerated. Considering the cycle of pressure transmission at the cost side, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 years was reduced to 470 / 550 million (the previous value was 600 / 720 million), and the 24-year forecast was 650 million, yoy + 19% / 17% / 17%. Recognized the company’s 15×22 target PE, lowered the target price to 5.98 yuan and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the steel industry is lower than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the expansion rhythm of alloy business is lower than expected.
