\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 816 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) )
Event: Recently, the company signed the transfer contract of state-owned construction land use right with Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources and Qiantang branch of Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources, and used RMB 137 million to obtain the land use right of 180600 square meters for investment and construction of 1 million new software home and supporting industrial projects.
Show strong alpha ability under the epidemic situation. Under the influence of 22q1 East China epidemic, the company's revenue still achieved a year-on-year growth of about 20%, significantly surpassing its peers. It is expected to maintain a stable growth in April. After the epidemic, the consumption will be replenished. It is expected that the certainty of annual revenue and profit is still strong.
The bottom-up relaxation of real estate is expected to exceed expectations. The weakening of real estate data will continue for some time, but the expectation is clear, and the bottom-up relaxation of real estate under local economic pressure is expected to exceed the expectation. We expect that the decline of 22q3 real estate sales data is expected to narrow, Q4 is expected to return to positive, and the annual decline is expected to be - 5% - 10%. Moreover, with the gradual increase of the proportion of renovation demand in the stock housing market, the company's market share has obvious room to improve.
Domestic sales: the development of big home has entered the fast lane. The proportion of large stores + comprehensive stores of the company continued to increase, and the proportion of large stores exceeded 38% at the end of 21. At present, according to the channel research feedback, the joint rate of software and customization in some dealers' large stores is about 30%, the sofa and bed, sofa and supporting, bed and supporting are about 40%, and the sofa and coffee table are more than 45%. The category integration effect is obvious. At present, the customer unit value is about 2W, and it is expected to be significantly improved in the future. The company has deeply practiced retail thinking. The potential energy of regional retail center + information reform + store optimization has been gradually released, the channel efficiency has been steadily improved, and the development of big home has entered the fast lane.
Foreign trade: strengthened supply chain capacity and steadily increased revenue & profit. The growth of endogenous export revenue of 21q4 and 22q1 companies exceeded expectations and significantly exceeded the market performance, mainly due to 1) the increase of mattresses in Mexico base; 2) According to the customized demand of foreign trade major customers, the family supply chain is more flexible and has obvious advantages. 3) promote the adjustment of organizational structure, gradually sort out the whole value chain of foreign trade customers, and increase localized operation. With the help of overseas base layout, supply chain optimization, localization of overseas operations and other measures, we expect the profit margin of foreign trade to increase by 1-2pct; In addition, the 1% devaluation of RMB is about 0.8pct elastic to the gross profit margin of foreign trade.
The production line of high-end products has been expanded steadily. Recently, the company obtained the land use right of 180600 square meters with 137 million yuan in Hangzhou, invested in the construction of 1 million new sets of software home and supporting industrial projects, and made steady progress. The project mainly produces high-end software sofa, intelligent function sofa, mattress, intelligent control system, functional iron frame and other products, and realizes the intelligent control of the whole process of home production through intelligent digital chemical plant. At present, the company has the most comprehensive brand matrix (high-end: rolfbenz / Natuzzi / lazboy + medium and high-end: home care brand + medium and low-end: tianxipai). The scope of customer expansion is comprehensive, and the new production capacity further enriches the high-end product line, which is conducive to expanding higher-level customer demand and improving the company's brand image. It is expected that the performance increment will continue to be released after the production capacity is implemented.
Investment rating: the channel efficiency of the company has been steadily improved, the production capacity construction of high-end products has been steadily promoted, and the development of big home has entered the fast lane; The competitiveness of foreign trade manufacturing and supply chain services has gradually increased, and the profit margin has increased steadily. We expect the net profit of 22-24 years to be 2.09 billion yuan, 2.62 billion yuan and 3.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, 25.0% and 23.8%, corresponding to PE of 16.3x, 13.0x and 10.5x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks and unexpected decline in real estate.
