\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Event overview: 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan / – 4.6%, recovering to 62% in the same period of 19 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 230 million yuan, an increase of 50 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the profit in the same period of 19 was 74 million yuan; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company, the loss was 260 million yuan, an increase of 70 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the profit in the same period of 19 years was 56 million yuan. Affected by the sudden epidemic in large cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, the national epidemic prevention and control measures have been comprehensively upgraded, and the travel has been rapidly and significantly cooled, resulting in the decline of the company’s income and damage to its performance. After the outbreak of the new round of epidemic, the company took the initiative to assume social responsibility. By the end of 22q1, more than 1000 hotels had been requisitioned nationwide, accounting for more than 16%.
Sub business performance: 1) the hotel business income was 1.11 billion yuan / – 4.0%, which recovered to 62.5% in the same period of 19 years; The profit was a loss of 320 million yuan, an increase of 50 million yuan over the same period last year and a profit of 60 million yuan over the same period in 19 years; 2) The business income of the scenic spot was 100 million yuan / – 11.1%, which recovered to 61.5% in the same period of 19 years; The profit was 53.39 million yuan / – 12.3%, recovering to 54.1% in the same period of 19 years.
RevPAR performance and recovery: the overall RevPAR of 22q1 company was 86 yuan / – 8.8%, which recovered to 61% in the same period of 19 years, including adr174 yuan / + 3.0%, which recovered to 92% in the same period of 19 years, and OCC 49.0% 2% / – 6.3 PCT, down 26 PCT from 19 years. Among them, the RevPAR of economical / medium and high-end / light management were 78 / 111 / 54 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% / 9.7% / 17.3% and a recovery of 61% / 55% / 53% respectively compared with the same period in 19 years; ADR was 147 / 230 / 137 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 4.1% / – 1.5% / – 1.6% respectively, and the recovery degree was 92% / 73% / 85% respectively compared with the same period in 19 years; OCC was 53% / 48% / 39% respectively, decreased by 5.6pct/4.4pct/7.4pct respectively compared with last year, and decreased by 26pct / 17pct / 24pct respectively compared with the same period in 19 years. The overall RevPAR of mature hotels is 88 yuan / – 10.5%, including adr172 yuan / + 0.9% and occ51.5% 1%/-6.5pct。 Specifically, from January to February, the tourism market showed signs of steady opening and slow rise from New Year’s day to Spring Festival, the hotel passenger flow increased, and the company’s overall RevPAR increased slightly year-on-year; Since late February, covid-19 epidemic broke out at multiple points and on a local scale, resulting in a certain degree of decline in the company’s overall RevPAR year-on-year in March.
Speed and quality of store opening: 1) 190 new stores in 22q1 / + 3%, 77 net stores / – 21%, and the new stores maintained an increase over the same period last year; 2) In terms of structure, the newly opened medium light management / medium and high-end / economical / other hotels account for 53% / 30% / 16% / 1%; 3) At the end of the period, the total number of stores reached 5993 as of 22q1, an increase of 1.3% over 2021q4, of which the number of medium and high-end hotels accounted for 23.8% (32.6% of the room volume), and the room volume of franchise mode accounted for 81.4%. By the end of 22q1, there were 1827 reserve stores (a net increase of 36 compared with the end of 21), of which light management / medium and high-end / economical / other hotels accounted for 53% / 30% / 17% / 1%.
Expenditure and profit side: 1) cost: 22q1 company’s gross profit margin is 5.8% / – 6.5pct, sales expense rate is 4.7% / – 0.9pct, management expense rate is 15.2% / + 1.9pct, and financial expense rate is 9.3% / – 0.8pct. The decrease of financial expense is mainly due to the company’s replacement of high interest rate loans in the early stage through ultra short-term financing bonds with lower interest rate to reduce financial cost. 2) Profit: the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 lost 230 million yuan, an increase of 50 million yuan over the same period last year, and a profit of 74 million yuan in the same period of 19. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: 1) the demand for hotels belongs to the rigid demand in optional consumption. Looking forward to the whole year, when the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China gradually stabilizes, and the demand for residents’ leisure tourism and business travel will be strongly repaired. 2) The marginal pattern of the hotel industry is good, and more than 10-15% of the supply has been cleared in 20-21 years. The Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) target is to reach the scale of 10000 stores by 23 years, which is expected to benefit from the trend of leading concentration. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company in 22-24 years is 4 / 13 / 1.5 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the performance in 22-24 years is 64 / 20 / 18x respectively. Pay attention to the recovery progress of hotels under the epidemic in the short term, be optimistic about the growth trend of hotel group joining in in the medium and long term, and pay attention to the potential acceleration of the opening of the first brigade.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downside risk, the recovery of the epidemic is less than the expected risk, and the opening of stores is less than the expected risk
