\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 493 Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) )
Performance review
Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 2022 released the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 28, 2022. In Q1 of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 2022, the operating revenue was 68.601 billion yuan, an increase of 98.38% year-on-year in 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.116 billion yuan, an increase of 18.84% year-on-year in 2021.
Business analysis
Zhejiang Petrochemical has a huge profit margin and strong certainty of performance growth: referring to the Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) annual report, Zhejiang Petrochemical made a profit of 22.296 billion yuan in 2021 and brought an investment income of 11.37 billion yuan to the company in the whole year. By the end of 2021, the fixed assets conversion rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was about 12.5%. Referring to the proportion of non fixed assets conversion amount of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II in projects under construction at the end of 2021, it is estimated that the fixed assets conversion rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II in Q1 was about 34.8% by 2022, With the gradual commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II deep processing project, the phase II performance is expected to be released gradually from 2022 to 2023, and the company’s performance growth is highly uncertain.
The production of deep-processing projects will increase the added value of products and significantly weaken the impact of cost side price rise: Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project includes large-scale new materials for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, and many new material park projects of the company are also actively promoted. Referring to the investment income of Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) 2022 Q1 on associated companies, Zhejiang Petrochemical realized a net profit of about 5.34 billion yuan in 2022 Q1, an increase of 22.75% compared with the same period in 2021, Compared with Q4 in 2021, it increased by 19.59% month on month, contributing about 2.723 billion yuan to Q1 performance in Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 2022. Driven by the global “double carbon” policy, the end consumption demand of new energy related materials is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Under the upward trend of crude oil price and coal price, due to the commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical deep processing project, the situation that the weighted sales price increase of terminal products is higher than that of raw materials will be reflected in succession, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow.
Investment advice
At present, the price center of the raw material end continues to rise, while the terminal high value-added products are expected to be released gradually from 2022 to 2024, and the stock capacity performance may be under pressure. We have lowered the profit forecast for 20222023. Under the extreme boom bottom scenario of the industry, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) 20222024, the profit forecast is 14.83 billion yuan / 19.82 billion yuan / 25.06 billion yuan, with a reduction range of 25% and 11% respectively from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to EPS of 1.46 yuan / 1.96 yuan / 2.48 yuan in 20222024, The corresponding PE is 9.03x/6.75x/5.34x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
\u3000\u30001. Risk of large one-way fluctuation of oil price; 2. Serious terminal demand and deterioration of demand; 3. Geopolitical risks; 4. The construction progress of the project is less than expected; 5. Risk of large fluctuation of US dollar exchange rate; 6. Other force majeure effects
