\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 041 Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) )
Corn seed sales increased significantly year-on-year, the willingness to sow in the new season remained strong, and the "buy" rating was maintained
During the same period, the parent company realized a significant increase in seed sales (+ 7.82 billion yuan) and a net profit of 3.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 20204, which was higher than that of the parent company (+ 8.92 billion yuan in the same period of 20204). Sales, financial and administrative expenses changed by - 5.58% / - 3.42% / + 1.06% year-on-year respectively, improving management efficiency and profitability. The leading position of the company is stable and the operation and management efficiency is improved. Based on this, we maintain the profit forecast of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 326 / 437 / 493 million, EPS will be RMB 0.37/0.50/0.56 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 60.6/45.2/40.1 times respectively. China's corn commodity grain prices are booming, the demand for corn seeds is strong, the inventory is at a historical low, and the pattern of corn seeds is in short supply. Based on the high-quality receptor, the company is expected to benefit from the commercialization process of GM and maintain the "buy" rating.
Revenue growth momentum is abundant, and the industry maintains a tight balance between supply and demand
At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company's contractual liabilities increased by 43.66% year-on-year, reflecting that the company's distribution channels accepted the scheduled sales of seed products, which will provide sufficient momentum for the realization of later performance. China's corn commodity grain prices are booming, and the tight balance between supply and demand of seeds in the new season in 2022 continues. According to the data of the National Agricultural Technology Center, the average seed cost per mu of corn seeds in 2022 planting season increased by 8% year-on-year to 54 yuan / mu. At the same time, the tight supply pattern of the corn seed industry is confirmed in the industry inventory. The seed industry monitoring office of the National Agricultural Technology Center predicts that China's corn seed inventory will be reduced to about 300 million kg after the 2022 planting season, and the national corn seed inventory is at a relatively low level in history.
Waiting for the commercialization of GM, the receptor of high-quality varieties is expected to further benefit
Since 2021, the pilot work of genetically modified maize industrialization under the guidance of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the pilot effect of genetically modified maize seeds has performed well. The company's Denghai, Xianyu and Liangyu series maize seeds have excellent properties and high market share. They are expected to be used as high-quality receptor varieties of genetically modified commercial seeds to further increase sales.
Risk tip: the global epidemic situation is repeated, the rise of seed price suppresses planting sentiment, and the cost of seed production increases.
