\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 215 Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) )
Event (1): the company announced that the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue of 2021 was 1.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%; Deduct 86 million yuan of non net profit, a year-on-year increase of + 47.1%..
Event (2): the company announced that the first quarterly report of 2022: 22q1 achieved an income of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.8%; Deduct non RMB 24 million, a year-on-year increase of + 24.2%.
Steamed and fried dumplings and fried dough sticks performed well, expanded new customers and new products, and the revenue increased steadily. 21q4 achieved revenue of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.6%; Deducting non net profit of 30 million yuan, the year-on-year growth slowed down, mainly due to the impact of the high base of 20q4. 22q1 has maintained steady growth in the context of repeated outbreaks. We believe that there are several main reasons: 1) the impact time of Q1 epidemic is mainly at the end of March, and the impact time on Q1 report end is short; 2) The epidemic has an impact on individual restaurants, but the company can make up for the growth by opening up new customers and introducing new categories to new customers; 3) The catering demand of 2021q1 is also affected by the epidemic, so there is no situation that the 21q1 base of other quick-frozen enterprises is high, and the company’s 21q1 revenue increased by 31% year-on-year.
1) sub products: the annual income of fried / baked / cooked / cooked dishes and other products in 21 years was 6.6 / 2.2 / 2.6 / 130 million yuan respectively, with a same increase of 26.7% / 19.1% / 39.2% / 162.1%. Cooking is mainly due to the rapid growth of cartoon bag volume; Due to the focus on steaming and frying dumplings in 21 years, the income of dishes reached 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 167.9%. In addition, the company’s large single product fried dough sticks maintained rapid growth, and the revenue of other customers except Yum China was + 43.9% year-on-year, leading the market.
2) split volume and price: in the whole year of 21 years, the sales volume of fried / baked / cooked / cooked dishes and other products were + 20.2% / 12.4% / 41.1% / 164.2% year-on-year respectively, and the price was + 5.4% / 5.9% / – 1.3% / – 0.8% year-on-year respectively. Revenue growth is mainly driven by volume growth, and price changes are mainly related to product structure adjustment.
3) sub channels: in the whole year of 21, the company’s direct sales and distribution channels achieved revenue of 510 / 760 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 51.6% / 25.4% respectively. The growth rate of direct sales channels was faster, mainly due to the adjustment of channel revenue caliber in 21 years and the classification of some medium-sized chain catering customers into direct sales channels. The growth rate of the two channels under the same caliber was close. According to the latest caliber, the revenue of large B and small B customers accounts for about 6:4.
4) by Region: the North District and the South District achieved an income of 430 / 830 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.0% / 41.8% respectively.
Lock up the price of raw materials + optimize the product structure to improve the operating profit margin. The company’s annual net interest rate for 21 years was 6.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.3pct; Deduct non net interest rate of 6.7%, year-on-year + 0.6pct. The decline in net interest rate was mainly due to the higher base of non economic income such as more government subsidies received by the company in 2020. The improvement of profitability is mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin under the optimization of product structure. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 22.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6pct, and the gross profit margins of fried / baked / cooked / cooked dishes and other products were + 0.5/2.0 / – 1.1/2.3pct year-on-year respectively. The gross profit margin of baking and dishes business was mainly due to the growth of scale and the rapid increase of gross profit margin of new products. The company locked the price of raw materials earlier last year, so it did not receive the impact of the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials. The rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 3.3% / 8.4% / 0.7% / 0.4% respectively, which was basically the same as that in the same period. The net interest rate of 22q1 was 8.1%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pct, mainly due to the government subsidy of 6 million yuan this year. Deduct non net interest rate of 6.8%, year-on-year + 0.2pct. The gross profit margin is 22.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.4pct. The raw materials used in 22q1 are locked in price, so the cost side is stable; The rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 3.2% / 8.7% / 0.8% / – 0.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1 / + 0.3 / + 0.2 / – 0.4pct. The change of financial expenses was mainly caused by the interest income generated from the raised investment.
The impact of the short-term epidemic is limited, and the production capacity is gradually released to ensure growth. 1) Impact of the epidemic: we expect that the overall impact of the epidemic on the company is limited. Although catering enterprises close their stores, they can still sell through group purchase and other means; At the same time, C-end consumers have strong demand for rice noodle products, and the company’s b-end products also flow to C-end through various channels, including government procurement, dealer docking group purchase and other ways to meet the market demand and maintain steady growth. 2) Capacity planning: this year, Wuhu, Anhui Province will release 30000 tons of capacity and 70 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 00 tons of the third phase of Henan Xinxiang, a raised investment project, by the end of the year. In the future, it may further layout capacity in the southwest to ensure future development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company focuses on serving b-end catering customers and is optimistic about the company’s continuous growth driven by strong R & D and customer advantages. According to the latest performance of the company and considering the possible impact of the recent epidemic on the company’s revenue and performance, we slightly adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 20222024 will be RMB 1.60/2.0/2.47 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25% / 25% / 24%, the expected return profit to the parent company will be RMB 99 / 1.25/168 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 12% / 27% / 34%, and EPS will be RMB 1.14/1.45/1.94 respectively (RMB 1.13/1.59 in the previous 22-23 years), and RMB 1.33/1.62/2.01 after excluding incentive expenses, The corresponding PE is 42x, 33x and 24x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, risk of food safety events and price fluctuation of raw materials.
