\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Key investment points
In the beginning of 2022, the epidemic repeatedly put pressure on hotel operation, and the loss expanded year-on-year. In 2022q1, the company's revenue was 1.21 billion yuan (yoy-4.64%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was -232 million yuan (the same period in 2021 was -182 million yuan), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was -259 million yuan (the same period in 2021 was -190 million yuan, and the loss expanded). We expect that the company's business will be greatly impacted due to the sharp decline in the demand for cultural and tourism travel caused by the repeated epidemic in many places across the country and strict control measures since the beginning of 2022. Sub business: in 2022q1, the company's hotel revenue was 1.11 billion yuan (yoy-3.99%), and the total profit was - 320 million yuan (an increase of 462933 million yuan compared with the loss in the same period of the previous year); The operating revenue of the scenic spot was 100 million yuan (yoy-11.05%), and the total profit was 533911 million yuan, a decrease of 7.5123 million yuan over the same period of last year.
The business recovery is poor, and the occupancy rate of economy hotels is better than that of medium and high-end hotels. 1) Overall caliber: RevPAR of 2022q1 first trip Home Inns is 86 yuan (yoy-8.8%), of which RevPAR of medium and high-end / economy hotels is 111 / 78 yuan respectively; The average house price is 174 yuan (YoY + 3.0%); The occupancy rate is 49.2% (yoy-6.3pct), and the occupancy rate of economy hotels is better than that of medium and high-end hotels. 2) Caliber of mature stores: 3630 mature stores in 2022q1 (more than 18 months after opening), RevPAR 88 yuan (yoy-10.5%); The average house price is 172 yuan (YoY + 0.9%); The occupancy rate is 51.1% (yoy-6.5pct).
Continuous expansion and abundant store reserves. In 2022q1, 190 new stores were opened, with a net increase of 77. By the end of 2022q1, there were 5993 hotels in the company, including 2259, 1426, 1771 and 537 economy / medium and high-end / light management / other hotels respectively. In addition, 1827 signed, unopened and signing stores had been signed at the end of Q1 (an increase of 36 compared with the end of 2021). The company has a large number of stores in reserve, or is expected to release quickly under the improvement of the epidemic situation.
The pressure on income leads to the month on month fluctuation of cost and expense structure. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 5.8% (mom 2021q4-13.7pct), which was mainly due to the pressure on the revenue side and the rigidity of operating costs. The sales expense rate was 4.7% (mom-0.6pct), the management expense rate was 15.2% (mom + 1.9pct), and the financial expense rate was 9.3% (mom + 0.4pct). The decline in income caused the expense rate to fluctuate.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the highly infectious Omicron epidemic in 2022q1 continues to repeat and the follow-up prevention and control measures that are easy to tighten but difficult to loosen exceed the level in 2021, we conservatively assume that the sluggish hotel occupancy rate in 2022 will delay the recovery of RevPAR, while the company's operating costs and management expenses are relatively rigid, and the performance end may continue to be under pressure. We adjusted the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to -1.0/9.75/11.6 (the previous value was 4.3/9.9/1.18 billion yuan), and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 was - 286% / 1042% / 19%. The current stock price corresponds to 26 / 22 times of the dynamic PE from 2023 to 2024, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the repeated epidemic has caused macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified industry competition, and the risk of hotel operation & expansion is lower than the expected risk of the market.
