\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Events
The company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In 22q1, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit of RMB 3.509/4.37/420 billion, yoy + 70.61% / - 47.88% / - 49.48%.
The shipment of photovoltaic glass increased rapidly and the production capacity was put into operation steadily
22q1 company has newly ignited a photovoltaic glass production line, added a total daily melting capacity of 1200t / D, and resumed the production of a 600t / D production line. The production capacity at the end of 22q1 reaches 14600t / d. at present, the remaining 6000t / D production line is planned to be put into operation within the year. Assuming that the 3.2/2.0mm specifications account for 50% respectively, we calculate that the average price of photovoltaic glass 22q1 has decreased by 8% month on month, and roughly estimate that the corresponding sales volume has increased by more than 60% month on month. Considering that the growth rate of production capacity since 21q4 is not as fast as that of sales volume, and the company's inventory at the end of 22q1 is 1.363 billion yuan, a decrease of 914 million yuan compared with that at the end of 21fy, we expect the production and sales rate of 22q1 to exceed 100%. The subsequent capacity expansion of the company is expected to proceed as planned, and the growth contributed by volume increase is considerable.
Q1's profitability is under pressure and is expected to recover after the release of silicon material capacity in the second half of the year
The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 21.47%, down 36.77 PCT year-on-year and up 3.56 PCT month on month. The main reasons were as follows: 1) the price of photovoltaic glass decreased sharply, and the company's 3.2/2.0mm glass decreased by 38.7% and 42% year-on-year and 7.8% and 8.4% month on month respectively; 2) 22q1 heavy alkali + 63% year on year and - 26% month on month, natural gas + 8.3% year on year and + 10.1% month on month. Since late March, the price of photovoltaic glass has increased. We expect the gross profit margin of 22q2 to improve month on month. After the capacity of 22h2 silicon material is gradually released, the profit distribution of the industrial chain is expected to be further optimized. In the medium and long term, with the large kiln put into operation, the kiln cost is still continuously optimized, the profit barrier of the company is clear, and the performance growth of the company may be guaranteed.
During the period, the expense rate was well controlled and the operating cash flow was significantly improved
The expense rate of 22q1 company during the period was 6.59%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.79 PCT, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were -3.78 / - 1.03 / - 1.64 / + 1.67 PCT respectively year-on-year. To sum up, 22q1 company achieved a net interest rate of 12.45%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.29 PCT. In terms of cash flow, the CFO at the end of 22q1 was 561 million yuan, compared with 139 million yuan in the same period last year, which was significantly improved year-on-year. The cash payment ratio in 22q1 was 22.35%, a year-on-year decrease of 35.77pct.
Investment suggestion: the company is the leader of photovoltaic glass. We expect that the nominal production capacity of the company will reach 204 / 3.0032400 tons / day at the end of 22-24 years, and the CAGR will reach 38% in three years. There are still 4 1200t / D production line plans in the follow-up, and the accelerated release of performance is expected. As an industry leader, the company has significant cost advantages. At present, the industry profit is still in the bottom range. We believe that it is difficult for the price of photovoltaic glass to fall to 21q3 under current circumstances. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is RMB 2.98/42.0/5.48 billion, corresponding to PE 28. 5 / 20.2 / 15.5x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the expansion of industry is less than expected, and the investment of new production capacity is more than expected
