\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) )
Event: on April 29, 2022, the company released its first quarterly report
Q1, the company achieved a revenue of 62.67 billion yuan + 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.43 billion yuan + 10.6%.
Comments: steady growth in performance, low turnover due to market environment, steady progress in diversified sectors and prudent finance
1) in Q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 62.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Among them, the settlement area of real estate development business was 3.747 million square meters, flat year-on-year, contributing 49.34 billion yuan of operating revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; The development sector recorded a gross profit margin of 21.8% before tax and 17.1% after tax. As of Q1, the company has sold about 47.762 million square meters of outstanding resources according to the consolidated statement, and the contract amount is about 738.51 billion yuan, which effectively ensures the release of subsequent performance.
2) in Q1, the company achieved a contract sales area of 6.327 million square meters and a contract sales amount of 106.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.7% and 40.7% respectively. At the beginning of 22 years, affected by the repeated epidemic and the market environment, residents’ willingness to buy houses was still weak, and the overall commercial housing transaction in the industry was sluggish in the first quarter. However, considering the frequent positive policies of Q1 real estate and the current recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the company can be decommissioned in the future.
3) in Q1, the company added six development projects with a total price of 17.4 billion yuan, corresponding to a total planned construction area of 1.458 million square meters (equity ratio of about 76.8%, an increase of 5.5 PCT over the whole year of 21 years). As of Q1, the total capacity of the company’s projects under construction is about 106858 million square meters (equity ratio is about 62.4%); The total construction area of the planned project is about 40.197 million square meters (equity ratio is about 64.2%). Q1, the company’s newly started capacity area was 5.994 million square meters, accounting for 31.2% of the annual construction plan (25.6% in the same period of 21 years), a year-on-year decrease of 25.5%; The completed capacity area is 3.104 million square meters, accounting for 8.0% of the annual completion plan (8.6% in the same period of 21 years), which is relatively flat year-on-year.
4) the diversified business of the company is developing well. Logistics and warehousing: in Q1, the operating revenue (including non consolidated items, the same in this paragraph) was 870 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; Four high-standard warehouses and five cold chain park projects were newly opened in the current period, with a corresponding rentable building area of 392000 square meters. Long term rental apartments: Q1 achieved an operating income of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; As of Q1, the rental housing business has operated and managed more than 210000 long-term rental apartments, with a cumulative opening of about 162000. Commercial development and operation: Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%.
5) as of Q1, the net debt ratio of the company was 34.6%, the cash short debt ratio was 2.6 times, and the asset liability ratio was 69.5%, which remained green. Q1, the company completed the issuance of 8 billion yuan of 3-year medium-term notes with a coupon rate range of 2.95% – 3.00%; The issuance of corporate bonds with a total amount of 1.99 billion yuan was completed, of which the coupon rate of three-year varieties was 3.14% and that of five-year varieties was 3.64%, with obvious credit advantages.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company for 22-24 years to 27.4 billion yuan, 33.2 billion yuan and 39.5 billion yuan; The current A-share price corresponds to the PE valuation of 202224, which is 8 / 7 / 6 times, and the H-share price corresponds to 6 / 5 / 4 times. The company has invested more resources in property management, commercial real estate, long-term rental apartments and other sectors and achieved good development; At the same time, the first mover advantage of the basic market and financial prudence provide follow-up support for the value release of the company’s long-term track. The company still has some room for profit expansion, the overall valuation can be improved, and the “buy” rating can be maintained.
Risk tip: the push sale is less than expected, the economic downturn is more than expected, and the completion of the project is less than expected.
