\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Core view
Sucralose maintained a high price and its performance increased year-on-year in the first quarter. The company released the report for the first quarter of 2022, and achieved an operating revenue of 1.898 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 66.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.21%; The basic earnings per share of the company is 0.79 yuan / share. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in the first quarter were 34.26% and 23.28% respectively. In the first quarter, affected by the decline of raw material prices and the industry entering the off-season, the quotation of the company's main sweetener products decreased slightly, and the prices of sucralose, acesulfame, methyl maltol and ethyl maltol decreased by 3 / 1 / 3 / 5000 yuan / ton respectively. The transaction price of sweetener is high before and low after the Spring Festival, the demand support is sufficient before the Spring Festival, and the actual transaction price of sweetener is high. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand gradually weakened, superimposed with the fermentation of epidemic situations in various places, the downstream demand was sluggish, and the actual transaction price of various products fell. The actual transaction price of sucralose is between 38 Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000045) 0000 yuan / ton; The actual transaction price of ansaimi is between 75 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 yuan / ton; The price of methyl maltol is between 110000130000 yuan / ton; The price of ethyl maltol is between 8500013000 yuan / ton. At the end of the first quarter, the transportation in some areas was limited by the epidemic, and the quotation of sucralose rebounded slightly. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the export of sucralose in the first quarter of 2022 was 391014 tons, a year-on-year increase of 96.75%, of which the export volume in March was 143523 tons, an increase of 180.13 tons compared with February. The downstream demand of sucralose is rigidly supported, the overall supply and demand of the whole year is tight, and the price still has upward potential.
Subscribe for private investment fund shares and invest in the downstream food and beverage field. The company issued the announcement on participating in the subscription of fund shares, and plans to use its own capital of 20 million yuan as a limited partner to subscribe for the shares of Chengdu Xinjin shengwangjiaozi new consumption equity investment fund partnership (limited partnership), with a target scale of 1 billion yuan. The main investors focus on investment opportunities in chain catering, leisure food, condiments, pet food, supply chain and other industries, At the same time, we will explore new scenes, new models and new business forms in the large consumption industry that are cross-border integrated with mobile Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and cultural creativity and grow at a high speed. The main investment fields of the private investment funds participated by the company are the food and beverage industry related to the downstream of the company's main business, which has a certain correlation and synergy with the main business. It is conducive to the company's sweetener business to contact the demand side customers downward and better grasp the market demand orientation.
Risk tip: the risk of the downstream food and beverage demand contraction caused by the epidemic; Risk that the project is put into operation less than expected; Risk of large fluctuations in product prices.
Investment suggestion: the company's main business sucralose is limited by the "two high" policy, the new production capacity of the industry is difficult to be approved, the demand for sugar substitute drinks continues to increase, and the industry maintains a high outlook under the tight balance between sucralose supply and demand. We believe that the company's addition of sucralose in 2021 will contribute to the annual performance, increase the production capacity of 5000 tons of maltol, continue to promote the second phase planning of Dingyuan, continue to expand the layout of the company in the field of sugar substitutes, and stabilize the leading position of sugar substitutes in the world. The net profit of the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.68-2.48 billion / year, with a year-on-year growth rate of RMB 1.68-2.48%; The corresponding EPS is 3 / 3.26/4.01 yuan; The current share price corresponds to PE of 12.5/11.5/9.4x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
