\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 13 Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) )
Event: on the evening of April 28, the company released the first quarter report of 2022.
The high performance growth is in line with expectations. In 2022, the net profit deducted from non parent company Q1 increased by 50% year-on-year
In 2022q1, the company achieved a total revenue of about 71.53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 13.93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was about 13.68 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. We believe that the improvement of profitability in 2022q1 is mainly due to the continued prosperity of the biomedical industry and some epidemic factors. The demand for the company's isolator technology series, Organic Analysis series, sterilization series and other related products has further increased, and the overall performance is in line with expectations.
The ability of cost control was further enhanced, with 2021q1 down about 7.8 percentage points compared with 2020q1
In 2022q1, the company's gross profit margin / net profit margin was about 57% / 19%, down 5.5/0.5pct year-on-year respectively. Compared with 2021q1, the expense rate during the period decreased from 42.88% to 35.05%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.83pct. In terms of breakdown, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of 2022q1 company was 10.9% / 8.7% / 19.2% / - 3.7% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8/3.9/0.2/0.02pct respectively, and the expense control ability was further improved.
Covid-19 antigen self-test is promoted at the national level. If the follow-up frequency gradually increases, the space elasticity of NC membrane market is large!
NC membrane is one of the most important materials of covid-19 test kit. According to our calculation, the cost price of NC membrane in each kit is about 0.1 yuan. In the short term, taking Shanghai as an example, it is estimated that the new space of NC membrane Market in 2022 will be about 40 million / month (equivalent to about 480 million / year). In March 2022, the National Health Commission issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which officially proposed to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. From the medium and long-term perspective, the market scale of NC membrane in covid-19 self-test is expected to reach 3.4 billion / year.
NC membrane + cell workstation is driven by two wheels, with high performance and strong growth certainty in 2022!
NC membrane is mainly imported. Driven by covid-19 antigen self-test, the global supply and demand of NC membrane is tight, and domestic substitution opportunities appear. The company has researched and developed microporous membrane for more than ten years, and its technology ranks at the international advanced level. In March this year, the company successfully realized the small batch mass production of NC membrane. At present, the company's NC membrane is recognized by sample customers, and the domestic substitution is expected to be further. We believe that the NC membrane will increase the company's performance greatly in 2022. From the high contract debt / total assets ratio at the end of 2021, we expect that the company's performance in 2022 will improve with strong certainty, which is expected to form a two wheel drive situation of NC membrane + cell workstation.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 160 / 2.1 / 250 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 153% / 30% / 21%, corresponding to P / E23 / 18 / 15x. Under the epidemic situation, the supply and demand of NC film is tight, and the company's new NC film is gradually in large quantities, which is expected to further boost the company's performance and maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the market competition of NC membrane deteriorates and the price fluctuates violently; 2) The development of downstream covid-19 self-test market is less than expected
