\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Core view
The company's performance grew rapidly. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 30.625 billion yuan (+ 101.8%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.209 billion yuan (+ 209.2%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 10.184 billion yuan (+ 206.5%). The revenue from independent products was 9.697 billion yuan (+ 707.61%), of which the subsidiary longkema achieved a revenue of 8.419 billion yuan, which is expected to be mainly contributed by covid-19 vaccine; The revenue of agent varieties was 20.931 billion yuan (+ 50.0%), of which 8.8 million copies (+ 21.9%) and 10.2 million copies (+ 101.5%) of 4-valent and 9-valent HPV vaccines were issued in batches throughout the year, driving the rapid growth of the company's performance.
In the first quarter of 2022, the current revenue was 8.841 billion yuan (+ 125.2%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.923 billion yuan (+ 105.0%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 1.896 billion yuan (+ 101.2%), of which 2.11 million copies (+ 70%), 4.83 million copies (+ 280%) and 3.24 million copies (+ 220%) of 4-valent, 9-valent HPV vaccines and 5-valent rotavirus vaccines were issued in batches respectively. It is expected that the agent varieties will be further expanded in 2022.
Increase R & D investment and the pipeline enters the harvest period. The company insists on strengthening the leading of R & D technology and constantly improving the product layout. In 2021, the R & D investment reached 814 million yuan (+ 69.4%), and currently has 29 independent R & D pipelines, of which 16 are in the clinical stage, forming a product matrix of tuberculosis, rabies, respiratory virus, pneumonia, intestinal diseases and meningitis. Mycobacterium vaccae has been approved and 25 provincial-level units have completed the bidding access. AC Hib freeze-dried triple vaccine is ready to be reported for production. Diploid and Vero crazy vaccine, tetravalent influenza vaccine and 15 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine are in PH3 clinical, and the R & D pipeline is gradually fulfilled.
Risk warning: HPV vaccine agency contract expires and sales decline; Registration risk of lyophilized AC Hib triple vaccine; The sales of Mycobacterium vaccae vaccine were less than expected; The risk of major changes in the global covid-19 epidemic..
Investment suggestion: the company acts as an agent for rapid mass production of methadone HPV and pentavalent rotavirus vaccine; The independent products EC diagnostic reagent and Mycobacterium vaccae have been approved, and the key layout of tuberculosis is about to usher in the harvest period; Covid-19 vaccine has been approved and strengthened in sequence in China. Promoting who Eul certification is expected to open up overseas markets and contribute to performance flexibility. Considering that covid-19 vaccine is affected by global epidemic development, enhanced vaccination policy, purchase price fluctuation and other factors, EPS in 20222023 is adjusted to 6.39/6.62 yuan (the previous values are 7.03/7.14 yuan respectively), and EPS in 2024 is expected to be 6.96 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of stock price is 15 / 14 / 13X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
