\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Events
The revenue in 2021 was 110.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14.2% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.71 billion yuan, an increase of 23.0%, of which the revenue in 21q4 was 25.59 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, a decrease of – 27.8%. The revenue of 22q1 was 31.05 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.52 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3%.
Revenue: in 21 years, the 20 billion matrix has been added to the golden code, and the potential energy of 22q1 milk powder business has been realized
(1) the main business income increased by 13.8% in the same period in 21 years, mainly due to the contribution of volume and structure, of which volume increase / price increase / product structure optimization contributed 7.5% / 2.5% / 3.7% respectively. The revenue of liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold drinks increased by 11.5% / 25.8% / 16.3% respectively in 21 years, of which the volume increase / price increase / product structure optimization of liquid milk contributed 6.7% / 2.7% / 2.2% respectively, and the volume increase / price increase / product structure optimization of milk powder and dairy products contributed 11.1% / 2.0% / 12.7% respectively. In the past 21 years, the market share of normal temperature liquid milk was nearly 40%, ranking first in the industry, and the growth rate was higher than that of the industry. Jindian became the third single product with more than 20 billion, ranking first in organic milk, and Shuhua milk, the leader of subdivision track, increased by nearly 30%. Cold drinks have been in the leading position for 27 consecutive years. Under the comprehensive layout of normal and low temperature + 2b2c, the cheese business increased by more than 150% at the same time, and the market share increased by 6.3%.
(2) under the 22q1 epidemic, the income still maintained a good growth momentum, and the income of liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold drinks increased by 7.0% / 35.3% / 35.5% respectively. White milk at room temperature maintained double-digit growth; Amoxi’s new sweet pineapple and Dandong strawberry have exceeded 700 million in sales in three months, with great potential. Jinlingguan became one of the first batch of infant powder matching in line with the new national standard of milk powder in China, and the offline share of infant powder matching (excluding Aoyou) increased to 9.3%.
Profit: 21q4 Winter Olympics expenses put pressure on performance, and structural upgrading + cost control promoted profit improvement
(1) the gross profit margin in 21 years was 30.6% (+ 0.5pct). The main structural optimization promoted the increase of gross profit margin, as well as the price increase of individual products and the reduction of promotion efforts, which offset the impact of rising costs. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate are 3.33% / 8.43% / 0.38% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.05pct / – 0.72pct / + 0.02pct, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 7.9% (+ 0.6pct); The weighted average roe was 25.6% (+ 0.4pct). As the freight is adjusted to the cost, the gross profit margin of 21q4 is 10.1% and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is 3.0%, mainly due to the increase of advertising expenses of Q4 Winter Olympics.
(2) the gross profit margin of 22q1 is 34.6% (+ 2.1pct), the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate is 3.2% / 9.52% / – 0.06% respectively, year-on-year + 0.08pct / + 0.48pct / – 0.41pct, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 11.4%.
Outlook: a new round of growth will start after 100 billion, with both stability and certainty
The dividend rate of 21 years was 70.6%, and the high dividend was returned to shareholders. It is planned to achieve a total operating revenue of 129.6 billion yuan (+ 17.2%) and a total profit of 12.2 billion yuan (+ 20.8%) in 22 years. It is judged that this goal includes the consolidated contribution of Aoyou. Profit forecast and valuation
The demand for dairy products is resilient enough, and the impact of the epidemic is relatively limited. The company is expected to promote double-digit revenue growth through volume increase + category structure adjustment + product structure upgrading, and improve profit margin through cost rate optimization. Stable performance, high certainty and prominent value of defense allocation. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be 1311 / 1473 / 162.2 billion respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 108 / 129 / 15 billion respectively; The corresponding PE is 22 / 19 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic spread beyond expectations, the price of raw milk fluctuated beyond expectations, competition intensified, and food safety
