\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 619 Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) )
Event: on April 28, 2022, the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's operating revenue was 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 72.66 million yuan and 68.28 million yuan respectively, both of which turned losses into profits.
Exploration contributed to high growth, producing 84100 tons of oil in the first quarter. As of March 31, 2022, Wensu project has produced 84114 tons of oil, equivalent to half of the annual oil production in 2021, with a quarterly target completion rate of 102.41%. According to wind data, the average spot price of Brent crude oil in the first quarter was US $102.39/barrel, an increase of 67.22% year-on-year in 21q1 (US $61.23 / barrel) and 28.21% month on month in 21q4 (US $79.86 / barrel). The company's crude oil sales and prices rose simultaneously, driving the rapid growth of revenue and performance.
The cost advantage is prominent, and the crude oil output will reach one million tons in three years. The company's Oilfield blocks are rich in reserves and shallow buried, and oil service engineering and petroleum equipment manufacturing can provide oilfield development services for exploration business. It has fast response speed and strong synergy, forming prominent cost advantages of exploration and development. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 42.78%, up 25.59 percentage points from 17.19% in 21q1 and 4.66 percentage points from 38.12% in 21q4. In addition, in Wensu block, Xinjiang, the company has accelerated to increase the production capacity of wen7 block of Wenbei oilfield, and the production scale is expected to reach 390000 tons in 2022; Hong11 block of Wenbei oilfield has started oil test and production test; The exploration process of hongqipo oilfield continues to advance, and the reserves are expected to be reported in 2022. As for the joint-stock project of Kazakhstan tenge block, the annual output of oil will be about 100000 tons in 2019. The company promises to obtain the control of tenge project by the end of 2023, and gradually increase the annual output through the repair of old wells and the optimization of new wells. It is estimated that the annual oil output of the company will reach one million tons in the next three years, and there is great room for output improvement.
The contract amount of oil service engineering decreased year-on-year, and the subsequent revenue can be expected. In the first quarter of 2022, the company signed 31 contracts with a contract amount of 226 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.54%. Among them, there were 6 overseas drilling engineering projects and technical service contracts, with a contract amount of 128 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 90.57%; There were 2 drilling engineering project contracts and material sales contracts in China, with a contract amount of 61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.24%; There were 23 sales and leasing contracts for complete sets of drilling rigs and their accessories, with a contract amount of 37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.74%. As the oil service engineering business in Pakistan, Egypt and other overseas regions was not fully recovered due to the continuous impact of the epidemic in 2021, the regional income decreased significantly. With the rise of oil price in 2022, the upstream capital expenditure is expected to gradually recover; In addition, the revenue from the new Saudi market developed by the company in 2021 is only 37.68 million yuan, which can be expected in 2022.
Investment suggestion: under the background of high oil prices, the company's crude oil production has accelerated, and the three businesses have the advantages of integrated industrial chain, with significant synergy. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 534 / 982 / 1332 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.33/2.45/3.33 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE on April 28, 2022 will be 11 times, 6 times and 4 times respectively. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of slow exploration and mining of new mines; The risk of falling oil prices; Overseas epidemics repeatedly affect the risk of overseas oilfield operations.
