\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Performance review
The company released its first quarterly report on April 28, with 22q1 beer sales of 2.219 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of - 2.8%; The operating revenue was 9.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.20%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.14%.
Business analysis
The epidemic in Shandong has led to a decline in sales, and Qingdao's main brands have bucked the trend. The volume of 22q1 decreased by 3%, and the ton income was + 6% year-on-year. It is expected that the epidemic slowed down the pace of high-end production + it will take time to transmit after the price increase of large single products at the beginning of the year. In terms of products, the sales volume of the main brand Qingdao was 1.304 million kiloliters, up + 5.1% year-on-year, accounting for + 5pct to 61% year-on-year; The sales volume of other brands was 825000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of - 13.1%, and the structural upgrading trend remained unchanged. From January to February, the company realized the overall growth of volume, price and profit, but the impact of the epidemic in Shandong in March was too large, which not only restricted the demand for catering and night show, but also expected to affect the production and transportation of Qingdao factory. In March, the monthly sales volume in Shandong fell by more than 50%, and that in East China fell by about 30-40%.
The rising cost of Q1 tons has not been fully covered yet, and the fee control enhances the operation efficiency. The cost of 22q1 tons increased by 6.9% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the costs of packaging materials, barley and freight. The reduction of superimposed sales volume affected the dilution of fixed costs, and the gross profit margin increased from -0.47pct to 37.85% year-on-year. The sales rate of 22q1 increased from -0.78pct to 14.20% year-on-year. Although the sponsorship of Beijing Winter Olympic Games was added, the cost-effectiveness ratio increased; The management rate was + 0.17pct year-on-year, and the net interest rate was + 0.70pct to 12.52% year-on-year.
In April, the high probability is positive month on month, and the annual sales volume is expected to be flat or slightly lower. In the last ten days of March, Shandong Province has successively restored the hall food. At present, the epidemic situation in East China is marginally improved. We expect the sales decline of Tsingtao beer from January to April to be about the median single digit. Assuming that it returns to the same period of 19 years from May to September, the annual sales will be basically the same year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic situation, weather and vaccination in the peak season of last year, the beer base was low (the sales volume from May to September of 21 years decreased by about a median single digit compared with 19 years). If the epidemic situation is properly controlled, it is expected to usher in explosive demand growth. The company locked the price of barley to Q3 to speed up the bottle return efficiency to reduce the pressure. In the early stage, the price of 1903, white beer, classic, pure raw vials and other products has been raised, and pure raw has the expectation of raising the price and changing the packaging in the peak season. In the medium and long term, Tsingtao beer has a solid brand foundation. The classic 1903 and pure production upgrading have consolidated the product foundation. White beer enjoys the track dividend and waits for the layoffs to release the profit elasticity.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate in 22-24 years will be 7% / 8% / 6%, the profit growth rate excluding compensation will be 21% / 23% / 20%, the EPS will be 2.40/2.96/3.56 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 35 / 28 / 23x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified regional competition, the low expected rate of consumption upgrading, and food safety problems.
