\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 336 New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) )
1. The profit performance was lower than expected, and the investment side dragged down the performance. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 78.7%, mainly due to the turbulence of Q1 equity market (Q1 CSI 300 and Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index in 2022 were – 14.5% and – 8.63% respectively; the same period last year were – 3.1% and + 2.2% respectively). In 2022q1, the company’s annualized total return on investment was 4.0%, with a year-on-year rate of -3.9pct.
2. The insurance income is in line with the expectation, and the periodic payment of new policies continues to grow negatively. In 22q1, the company achieved a total premium income of 64.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.4%, of which the premium income of new orders was 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.8%; Renewal premium income was 42.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0%. New orders of long-term insurance in the first year were 21.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.9%, of which the periodic payment was 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18%; Short term insurance premium income was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 41%.
3. In terms of channels, bancassurance performed better than individual insurance, but the overall new single term delivery maintained negative growth
1) in terms of individual insurance, the total channel premium income was 42.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.3%, of which the first-year payment of long-term insurance was 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%.
2) in terms of bancassurance, the total channel premium income was 21.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, including 2.96 billion yuan in the first year of long-term insurance, a year-on-year increase of – 13%; Single payment was 12.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%.
Investment view: the lower than expected profit performance of the first quarter report of the asset side company is mainly due to the fluctuation of the equity market. We believe that with the warming of the equity market, the negative growth of the company’s subsequent profit is expected to continue to narrow. The base pressure on the liability side will decrease after March, and the decline of new single term delivery and NBV is expected to narrow. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the company’s manpower situation. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 8.28 billion, 11.8 billion and 15.63 billion respectively, and yoy will be – 44.6%, 42.6% and 32.4% respectively (the previous estimate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 16.2 billion, 17.7 billion and 19.9 billion respectively). The reduction of profit forecast is mainly due to the intensification of stock market turmoil this year and the reduction of investment return expectation. At present, the company’s 2022pev is only 0.33 (a) / 0.18 (H) times, which is at a historical low valuation. The subsequent repair of asset side and liability side is expected to bring opportunities for valuation repair to the company.
Risk tip: the rapid decline of interest rate exceeded expectations, the decline of agent scale exceeded expectations, the sales of guaranteed products were less than expected, and the epidemic situation was repeated.
