\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 80.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.27%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit of 8.826 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 8.39%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 4 shares with capital reserve for every 10 shares to all shareholders. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%.
Ping An View:
Silicon wafer: low capacity utilization affects the competitive advantage of silicon wafer and speeds up capacity expansion. In 2021, the company's silicon wafer output was 70.0gw, with a year-on-year increase of 19%, and the capacity utilization rate was about 72%, with a year-on-year decrease of 23 percentage points, mainly because the silicon material in 2021 was in short supply; The shipment volume was 70.01gw, including 33.92gw for external sales, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and 36.09gw for self use; The sales revenue reached 17.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10%, corresponding to about 0.502 yuan per watt, a year-on-year increase of about 8%, the gross profit margin was 27.55%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.81 percentage points, and the gross profit per Watt was 0.138 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.01 yuan. In terms of production capacity, by the end of 2021, the production capacity of silicon wafer has reached 105gw. According to the company's plan, the production capacity of single crystal silicon wafer will reach 150gw by the end of 2022. In 2021, the profitability advantage of the company's silicon wafer business has narrowed compared with its main competitors, which may be mainly due to the relatively low capacity utilization of silicon wafers; Looking forward to the future, as the main silicon wafer participants are vigorously expanding production, with the easing of the shortage of silicon materials, the competition of silicon wafers may intensify in the future.
Components: the sales volume has increased significantly and the profitability has declined. In 2021, the company shipped 38.52gw of components, including 37.24gw of external sales, a year-on-year increase of 55.45% and 1.28gw for self use, maintaining the position of the largest component enterprise in the world. In 2021, the revenue of battery module business was about 58.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%, corresponding to the revenue of single watt of about 1.57 yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin was 17.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47 percentage points. In 2021, the overseas revenue of the company's component business accounted for 62%, and the main overseas markets were the Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe. The gross profit margin of overseas component sales was 19.16%, 6.6 percentage points higher than that in China. In terms of capacity, by the end of 2021, the company's battery capacity has reached 37gw and the component capacity has reached 60GW. According to the company's plan, by the end of 2022, the battery capacity will reach 60GW and the component capacity will reach 85gw. According to the company's plan, the shipment volume of components will reach 50-60gw in 2022. In 2021, the gross profit per watt of component business was about 0.266 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.044 yuan. Excluding the contribution of silicon wafer, the gross profit per watt of pure battery component business was about 0.128 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.034 yuan, and the gross profit rate of pure battery component business was about 8.2%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the business situation was stable and the profitability increased month on month. In 2022q1, the company shipped 18.36gw of silicon wafers, a year-on-year decline, including 8.42gw of external sales and 23.2% of gross profit margin; The shipment of components was 6.44gw, which was basically the same year-on-year, including 6.35gw of external sales, with a gross profit margin of 19.3%. In the first quarter, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92 percentage points, a month on month increase of 3.62 percentage points, and the period expense rate was 8.0%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points. Under the background of year-on-year decline in gross profit margin and year-on-year increase in expense rate, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%, mainly due to the increase of investment income. The investment income in the first quarter increased by 620 million yuan year-on-year, mainly contributed by associated silicon enterprises.
The new battery is the main starting point of the company's differentiated competition in the future. In 2021, the company invested 4.394 billion yuan in R & D, focusing on obtaining differentiated competitive advantages through technology R & D, in which new batteries are an important starting point for realizing differentiation. In 2021, the company set up an open innovation platform for battery components. The conversion efficiency of n-type TOPCON battery, hjt battery and p-type TOPCON battery kept breaking industry records, independently developed new high-efficiency battery technology, formed an original battery technology route and broke through key technology processes; Actively implement the business strategy of "not leading and not expanding production" and accelerate the industrial application and capacity construction of new battery technology. In the early stage, the company disclosed that it plans to build high-efficiency battery capacity in Xixian new area of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) and other places in Inner Mongolia. It is expected that some projects will be put into operation in the third quarter of 2022 and are expected to contribute to production in 2022.
Investment advice. According to the operating conditions of the company, the profit forecast is slightly adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 13.518 billion yuan (original value 138.32), 16.641 billion yuan (original value 168.30), 20.762 billion yuan (new increase), and EPS 2.5 billion yuan 50, 3.07, 3.84 yuan, dynamic pe25 9. 21.0, 16.8 times. The photovoltaic industry is booming. The company has core competitiveness in monocrystalline silicon chips, batteries, modules and other links, and is expected to continue to lead the development of the industry and maintain the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk warning. (1) As the competition in silicon wafer industry intensifies, the competitive pressure of the company in silicon wafer may increase and affect the profitability. (2) The export of the company's component business accounts for a large proportion. If the phenomenon of overseas trade protection intensifies, it may have an adverse impact. (3) The risk that the progress of the company's new battery and other emerging businesses is less than expected.
