\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) publish the annual report of 21 and the quarterly report of January 22. In 2021, the revenue was 5.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, the net profit was 1.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, and the earnings per share was 2.88 yuan / share. 4q21 revenue and net profit were 1.4 billion yuan and 580 million yuan respectively. 1q22 achieved revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, net profit of 485 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and earnings per share of 0.81 yuan / share. At the end of 1q22, the advance collection was 392 million yuan, an increase of 10 million yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 330 million yuan month on month.
Key points supporting rating
The effect of reform and adjustment in the two years has initially shown. In 2021, the revenue was 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, and the net profit was 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%. (1) After more than two years of adjustment, positive changes have taken place in products and channels, and the revenue has achieved rapid growth in 21 years, surpassing the level in 2019. (2) In terms of products, the revenue of high, medium and low Baijiu in 2021 will be RMB 4.78 billion, RMB 100 million and RMB 90 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, 97.9% and 20.1% respectively. The sales volume of high-grade liquor was 28000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, and the average price of products increased by 6%. In the past two years, the company has strengthened the promotion of the secondary high-end price belt, conducted independent assessment for 10 and 20 years, launched new products in early summer, mid autumn and Jianxiang 518, improved the secondary high-end price belt and enjoyed the dividend of the rapid development of the price belt. (3) In terms of regions, the income of Anhui Province in 2021 was 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, and the income outside the province was 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. The company has a solid consumption foundation in Anhui Province, increased resource investment in sub high-end new products, optimized the big business model, improved team combat effectiveness, intensive cultivation and promoted the construction of flat channels. The market outside the province accounts for a relatively low proportion. Focusing on Dawan District, Yangtze River Delta and strategic point markets, we will strengthen investment and business selection outside the province. In the long run, it is expected to become a new growth point outside the province. (4) In 2021, the net interest rate increased by 2.5pct to 34.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the asset disposal income of 260 million yuan. After excluding this impact, the net interest rate has little change.
1q22 had a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, ranking lower among Baijiu listed companies. (1) As the company advocates the business philosophy of “low inventory + high turnover + real market demand”, under the background of the spread of the epidemic in March, we judge that the company’s product delivery speed may slow down and maintain the health of the channel system. (2) 1q22 the income in Anhui Province was 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the income outside the province was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The growth rate outside the province was slightly higher than that inside the province.
As the effect of the reform appears one after another, it is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in 22-23 years Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . Since 2019, the company has stepped out of the comfort circle and started a comprehensive and systematic reform from the product system and channel mode. The products focus on the secondary high-end and optimize the big business model, and the results are emerging one after another. The company is expected to enjoy the rapid expansion of secondary high-end demand in Anhui in the next three years. In the long run, it is expected to become a new growth point outside the province.
Valuation
According to the latest financial report, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 3.38, 4.06 and 4.81 yuan / share respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, 20% and 18%. The current valuation is at the low level of the industry and maintains the “buy” rating.
