\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 141 Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) )
Key elements of the report:
On the evening of April 28, Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) released the first quarter report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.575 billion yuan, an increase of 90.65% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 384.07%.
The volume and price of main products rose simultaneously, and the Q1 performance achieved high growth year-on-year: the company's significant growth year-on-year in the first quarter was mainly due to the rise in the price and sales of main products. Among them, the overall high outlook of the phosphorus chemical industry chain continued, and the prices and revenue of glyphosate, yellow phosphorus and ammonium phosphate ranked first. During the reporting period, 1 The average price of glyphosate was 66600 yuan / ton, up 202.41% year-on-year. The sales volume was basically the same as that of the same period last year, 47200 tons. The sales revenue of the sector was 3.140 billion yuan, up 198.21% year-on-year; 2. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 29000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 96.76%, the sales volume increased by 51.28% to 11800 tons, and the sales revenue of the sector was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 196.02%; 3. The average price of ammonium phosphate was 340363 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 50.37%, the sales volume increased by 20.60% to 209 thousand tons, and the sales revenue of the sector was 711 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81.38%. In addition, the sales revenue of phosphate rock in the first quarter fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp year-on-year decline of 63.15% to 200000 tons of phosphate rock sales. However, in terms of output, the output of phosphate rock Q1 was basically the same as that in the same period last year, at 345000 tons. It can be seen that the sharp decline in phosphate rock sales in the first quarter was mainly due to the priority supply of raw materials for downstream products such as ammonium phosphate and yellow phosphorus. Considering that the current high prospect of downstream agriculture continues, which will benefit the demand for pesticide and fertilizer products such as ammonium phosphate and glyphosate, and the current cost side support is still relatively strong, it is expected that the price of main products of subsequent companies is still expected to remain relatively high.
100% shareholding in xingxinglantian to strengthen the cost control ability of phosphate fertilizer: Yidu Xingfa, a subsidiary of the company, plans to acquire 51% equity of xingxinglantian in cash. Xingxinglantian has an annual production capacity of 400000 tons of synthetic ammonia, the main raw material of ammonium phosphate. After this acquisition, Yidu Xingfa will hold 100% equity of xingxinglantian. At that time, the company's synthetic ammonia guarantee capacity will be further enhanced, the phosphate fertilizer industry chain will be more perfect, and it will also help the company improve the management efficiency of the park.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 51.59/55.18/6.087 billion yuan respectively, and the P / E corresponding to the closing price of 31.55 yuan on April 28 will be 6.8/6.4/5.8 respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; Risk that the progress of projects under construction is less than expected; Risk of limited operating rate of devices in high energy consuming industries; Risk of sharp fluctuations in the prices of main products and raw materials.
