\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
In 2021, the volume and price of Fenjiu will rise, the proportion of Qinghua will further increase, and the southern market will achieve a rapid breakthrough. In 2021, the company's revenue was 19.97 billion yuan (+ 42.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.31 billion yuan (+ 72.6%); In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.71 billion yuan (- 24.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan (- 24.9%). In terms of products, the revenue of Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor in 2021 was 17.92/6.4/1.25 billion yuan (+ 41.9% / + 12.7% / + 91.4%) respectively, and the gross profit margin was + 3.1pct / + 0.4pct / - 3.3pct respectively year-on-year. Among them, the volume and price of Fen Liquor increased simultaneously (year-on-year + 28.5% / + 10.4%) and the proportion of blue and white series increased significantly (it is estimated that blue and white series accounted for about 40%); In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 75.0% (+ 2.7pct) and net profit margin was 27.0% (+ 4.8pct). In terms of sub regions, the company promoted the in-depth expansion of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta markets. In 2021, the revenue inside / outside the province was 8.07/11.74 billion yuan (+ 34.6% / + 49.5%), accounting for 59.3% (+ 2.6pct), of which the average growth rate of sales in the southern market reached more than 60%.
2022q1 continued the high growth trend of the previous year, the proportion of blue and white rose, driving the net interest rate to 35%, and the expansion outside the province continued. In 2022q1, the revenue was 10.53 billion yuan (+ 43.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan (+ 70.0%). The gross profit margin of the company was upgraded by 1.2t + 2025%, and the net profit margin of the main products was increased by 1.2t + 2025%. In terms of products, Fen Liquor and series liquor continued high growth in 2022q1, of which Fen Liquor revenue was 9.87 billion yuan (+ 44.4%), accounting for 94.2% (+ 0.3pct); The revenue of series liquor is 260 million yuan (+ 118.3%), accounting for 2.5% (+ 0.8pct), and the revenue of prepared liquor is 350 million yuan (+ 7.2%), accounting for 3.3%. In terms of sub regions, the proportion outside the province further increased. In 2022q1, the proportion inside / outside the province was 3.85/6.63 billion yuan (+ 31.3% / + 52.5%) respectively, and the proportion outside the province increased by 3.5pct to 63.2%. In addition, the company's advance collection of 4.39 billion yuan (+ 32.4%) in 2022q1 remained high, accumulating power for 2022q2.
In 2022, the company's goal is better, the structure is better and the benefits are better, the revenue target is expected to be realized steadily, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released continuously. In 2022, the company plans to increase its revenue by about 25%. In the short term, the 2022q1 performance laid the foundation for the annual performance. Since April, the channel payment collection has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the terminal dynamic sales have remained good; Looking forward to the whole year, under the stabilization of demand in the province, Qinghua and laobaifen are expected to continue the steady growth trend. The high growth trend of Qinghua in the market south of the Yangtze River outside the province is expected to continue in large quantities. It is expected that the goal of the whole year will be achieved without worry. Under the planning of better structure and better efficiency, it is expected that the cost rate will decline slightly, driving the steady increase of profit margin. In the medium and long term, at present, the company's "high-end and nationalization" strategy has been promoted in an orderly manner. Guided by the blue and white series, the company has intensively cultivated key sectors and gradually consolidated the foundation of nationalization. The Fen Liquor Market with a billion yuan has increased to 22, the market expansion results in East and South China have begun to show, and the company's long-term growth is expected.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations; The epidemic situation is repeated in a large area; The promotion of high-end and nationalization was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: considering the increasing proportion of the company's high-end liquor, slightly raise the profit forecast for 20222023 and add a profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the EPS in 20222024 will be 6.33/8.63/11.17 yuan (the value before 20222023 will be 6.27/8.21 yuan), and the current corresponding PE is 42 / 31 / 24x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
