\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 346 Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) )
Event: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) released the performance announcement for the first quarter of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 53.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.32% and a month on month increase of + 14.83%; The gross profit in a single quarter was 8.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.54% and a month on month increase of + 24.99%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.71% and a month on month increase of + 49.79%.
Comments: the company's performance in the first quarter slightly exceeded expectations. In the first quarter, the international crude oil price maintained an upward trend. The average price of Brent crude oil was US $102.39/barrel, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.22% and a month on month increase of + 28.22%; Compared with the operation data announced by the company, the average purchase price of crude oil of the company in the first quarter was about US $83 / barrel, which may contribute to the inventory income for the performance. By sector, according to the announcement data, the sales of refining and chemical products, PTA and new material products in the three sectors of the company fell year-on-year. We expect that the weakening of the demand side is mainly due to the repeated impact of regional epidemics, which will affect the downstream operation level. In terms of price, the average selling prices of the three product sectors have risen, and we judge that it is mainly contributed by the cost side. The announcement shows that the average selling price of refining and chemical products is + 66.49%, that of PTA is + 42.27% and that of new material products is + 15.00%. Since 2022, the external environment has been complex and the epidemic has been repeated regionally, resulting in rising production costs and poor demand side prosperity. In this context, the company gives full play to the advantages of large platform and long industrial chain and weakens the impact of raw material price fluctuations. At the same time, through the adjustment of business strategy, it can bring better inventory income and help the performance contrarian growth in both directions.
Relying on the refining and chemical platform to continuously deepen the industrial chain: relying on the refining and chemical platform, the company provides raw materials with strong cost competitiveness and continues to expand the depth of the industry. The projects announced to be put into operation include the project of high-performance resin and new materials with an annual output of 1.6 million tons and the project of high-performance polyester with an annual output of 2.6 million tons, including polycarbonate, ABS and ethanolamine; Film grade masterbatch polyester chip, photovoltaic material polyester chip, super bright polyester chip and other high value-added products. It has been announced that there are 1.5 million T / a green multifunctional textile new material projects in hand. Kanghui new material, an enterprise to be spun off, has 800000 T / a functional polyester film and functional plastic projects; 450000 T / a PBS biodegradable plastics and lithium diaphragm project with an annual output of 1.6 billion square meters. Under the current industrial background, the company's new project layout is expected to fully realize the coordination of upstream and downstream industries, improve the overall profitability of the company and outline the second curve of performance growth.
Investment suggestion: maintain the Buy-A investment rating. Considering the impact of the current epidemic on demand and the prominent geopolitical risks affecting energy prices, we lowered the company's performance expectations. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 16.011 billion yuan, 19.738 billion yuan and 22.997 billion yuan respectively.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation of crude oil price, the risk of lower end demand than expected, the risk of lower project construction than expected, the risk of safety and environmental protection production, the risk of insufficient crude oil quota, etc.
