\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
The company released the results of the first quarter of 22 years. In Q1 of 22 years, the revenue was 1.898 billion yuan, yoy + 66.91%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 442 million yuan, yoy + 110.21%, which was lower than the median value of the previous forecast, which was in line with expectations.
The trend of “sugar control” is becoming more and more intense, and the development speed of sugar substitute industry is accelerating. As the leader of global sweetener industry, the company has the largest production capacity of Acer and sucralose in the world, with strong pricing power and complete industrial chain. It is expected to accelerate its growth in the future and maintain the “buy” rating.
The company’s performance continued to grow with the rise of sweet dose and price: the growth of the company’s performance mainly benefited from the rise of the volume and price of its main products. Over the past 22 years, the popularity of chemical products has been maintained, and the price of sweetener, the company’s main product, has remained high. In Q1, the average price of sucralose, the company’s main product, reached 461700 yuan / ton, yoy + 124%, and the average price of Acer honey was 89100 yuan / ton, yoy + 51%. In addition, the company’s 5000 ton sucralose project has been completed in 21 years. At present, it has reached full production, and the sales volume has increased significantly year-on-year. The project with an annual output of 5000 tons of sucralose has reached full production. Compared with the same period of last year, the production capacity, output, sales volume and sales price of sucralose have increased by different ranges. At the same time, due to the rising production costs of food additive products and bulk chemicals, the company timely adjusted the product prices by different ranges.
The gross profit margin increased significantly and the expenses decreased year-on-year: the rise of product prices thickened the company’s profits, and the company’s gross profit margin increased by 5.27pct year-on-year to 34.26%. With the growth of the company’s revenue, all expense rates were diluted, the R & D expense rate decreased by 0.87pct year-on-year to 2.36%, the sales expense rate decreased by 0.24pct year-on-year to 0.92%, the management expense rate decreased by 1.49pct year-on-year to 1.91%, and the financial expense rate decreased by 0.42pct year-on-year to 0.06.
Layout of new sweeteners and abundant projects under construction: under the general trend of reducing sugar and low saccharification in the world, the company, as the world’s leading R & D, production and sales enterprise of Acer honey and sucralose sweeteners, has laid the foundation of the company’s industry position based on the continuous optimization of product cost and the continuous release of production capacity. At present, the company has a production capacity of 12000 tons of Acer honey and 8000 tons of sucralose. The production capacity of both products is the first in the world, with obvious leading advantages. In addition, the company has sufficient momentum for subsequent growth. 4500 tons of Jiale musk solution and 1000 tons of furan ammonium salt projects have been completed and produced qualified products, which is expected to contribute profits in the future; The project of Jinwo technology, a subsidiary, with an annual output of 5000 tons of methyl ethyl maltol has entered the state of trial production, and the production capacity is expected to be released this year; Dingyuan sulfoxide chloride phase II project has started construction, and the main project has been completed at present; The administrative examination and approval of DMF project with an annual output of 30000 tons is being promoted; New products alodonose and enzyme modified glucose based Stevia are under construction. The layout of the company in the sugar substitute industry has been further optimized.
Profit forecast: we maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit of 1.586/1.711 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023, yoy + 35% / 8%, equivalent to EPS of 2.83/3.05 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 13 / 12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The price of the company’s products is lower than expected; 2. The release of new production capacity is less than expected;
