\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company announced the first quarterly report of 2022: 22q1 achieved a revenue of 62.984 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.022 billion yuan, with a loss of 989 million yuan in the same period of last year, turning losses into profits; After deducting the net profit of RMB 1.29 billion.
Improvement of profitability: the net profit of 22q1 company significantly reversed its losses year-on-year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 5.09pct to 12.26% year-on-year, mainly due to: 1) focusing on the core logistics strategy, actively optimizing the product structure and reducing the number of products with low gross profit. According to the data from January to March, the company completed 2.43 billion business in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. In addition, the company has achieved positive year-on-year growth in single ticket price for five consecutive months, with 22q1 single ticket revenue of 16.29 yuan, an increase of 4.22% over 15.63 yuan in the same period last year, reflecting that the company pays more attention to quality rather than growth in the assessment of business volume. 2) Adhere to lean cost control, improve input-output efficiency, enable science and technology to improve resource utilization efficiency, continue to promote the integration of four networks, strengthen the integration of site and line resources, and strengthen the resource coordination across business sectors during the Spring Festival; 3) Business profitability improved and new businesses reduced losses year-on-year; 4) Since 21q4, the performance contribution of merging Kerry Logistics achieved a revenue of 20.205 billion yuan in the first quarter of supply chain and international business, with a year-on-year increase of 451%. In addition, the comprehensive expense rate decreased by 0.94 PCT to 9.64% year-on-year, among which the expense rates of sales, management and R & D decreased by 0.48 PCT, 0.41 PCT and 0.32 PCT year-on-year.
In March, the single ticket revenue increased slightly year-on-year: from the single month data, the total revenue in March 2022 was 18.866 billion yuan, yoy + 28.95%. Among them, the revenue of express business was 12.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%; The business volume was 803 million, down 7.91% year-on-year; The single ticket income was 15.22 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24% and a month on month increase of 0.54%. Affected by the optimization of product structure and the sealing and control of some cities in China due to the epidemic, the logistics and transportation were blocked. Combined with the confirmed cases in the transfer of Hangzhou Shunfeng, the business volume decreased slightly, but the single ticket revenue continued to rise year-on-year and month on month. As the company continues to improve product stratification, formulate targeted market strategies, optimize product structure and improve product pricing ability, the single ticket gross profit is expected to stabilize and recover.
Launch the equity incentive plan, and the long-term performance growth can be expected: the company discloses the equity incentive plan, and plans to grant no more than 60 million stock options to incentive objects, with an exercise price of 42.61 yuan / share. The incentive assessment target is that the revenue in 202225 will not be less than 270 billion yuan, 315 billion yuan, 370 billion yuan and 435 billion yuan, or the net profit margin attributable to the parent company will not be less than 2.1%, 2.6%, 2.9% and 3.3%. Long term performance growth can be expected. In addition, after the company completed the consolidation of Kerry Logistics in September 2021, China’s international business developed in two lines. By the end of March, Kerry Logistics and SF had successfully won the bid for the international freight forwarding business of Amcor (Amcor), a global leading packaging enterprise, in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, India, Sweden and so on. The cooperation with Kerry Logistics is expected to further improve the international layout. Overall, brand synergy and multi business synergy are expected to bring industry-leading scale effect and synergy effect to the company, and consolidate the leading position and competitive advantage of the company’s comprehensive logistics track.
Profit forecast: under strict policy supervision, the price war eased, the industry began to compete for services, and the company’s direct marketing model has inherent advantages. At the same time, the company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization brought by the four networks financing and fine operation. In addition, Ezhou airport is expected to be put into trial operation in the first half of 2022, which will provide a strong growth power for timeliness, international business and supply chain. The bargaining power of the company’s products is up, the cost is optimized, and the performance repair flexibility is large. Considering the repeated epidemics in many parts of the country and the rise of oil prices since March, the profit forecast has been slightly reduced. It is estimated that the net profit in 2022 and 2023 will be 6.422 billion yuan and 8.723 billion yuan (the original value is 6.974 billion yuan and 8.997 billion yuan), yoy respectively + 50% and + 39%, and EPS is 1.31 yuan and 1.78 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of a share price is 35 times and 26 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected, fuel costs rise, etc
