\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2021, the total revenue was 110.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, the net profit was 8.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and the net profit margin increased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.9%. 4q achieved a revenue of 25.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and recorded a net profit of 760 million, a year-on-year decrease of 28%
It was announced that in 2022q1, the total revenue was 31.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the net profit was 3.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%.
Dividend scheme: cash dividend of 9.6 yuan per 10 shares
In 2021, the company’s revenue will blossom in an all-round way. In terms of business, liquid milk achieved a revenue of 84.91 billion, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year (4q revenue of 20.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%). The sales scale of Yili, amuxi and Jindian exceeded 20 billion. The market share of normal temperature liquid milk ranked first in the industry (about 40% market share), the market penetration increased by 0.7 percentage points to 85.4% year-on-year, and the penetration in prefecture level cities and county-level cities increased by 0.6 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively, The market share of e-commerce platform reached 28.4%; The growth of low-temperature fresh milk was gratifying, the revenue increased by 250% year-on-year, and the market share increased by 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. The milk powder and dairy products business achieved a revenue of 16.2 billion (4q revenue of 4.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%), a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. The market share of infant milk powder jumped to the second in the industry, the market share increased by 1.4 percentage points, the growth rate of income from mother and infant channels reached 41%, and the income of jinlingguan exceeded 10 billion. It became the first batch of infant formula milk powder to review the new national standard in 2022q1; Adult milk powder maintains the first market share and leads the industry. The cold drink business achieved a revenue of 7.16 billion (4q revenue of 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 71.6%) and a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, maintaining China’s leading position. The revenue of other categories was 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.
In terms of gross profit margin, under the same caliber, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 30.9%, and the gross profit margin of liquid milk, milk powder and cold drinks increased by 0.41 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points and – 0.61 percentage points respectively. In each category, the price, sales volume and product structure upgrading all contributed to positive income.
In terms of expenses, the annual expense rate decreased steadily and slightly, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points to 21.26%. 4q’s net profit declined, which we believe is mainly due to the increase of corresponding marketing and publicity investment near the Winter Olympics.
2022q1 company’s performance made a successful start. According to previous disclosure, all of its products maintained a good growth trend from January to February. The revenue proportion of key products such as Jindian and anmushi increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, and the market share remained in the lead. Among them, jinlingguan infant milk powder took the lead in completing the formula upgrading. The sales revenue from January to February increased by 30% year-on-year, with the growth rate ranking first in the industry; In January, normal temperature white milk increased by 12.6% year-on-year, and Jindian increased by 15.1%, ranking first in the same category. Throughout the first quarter, liquid milk achieved a revenue of 22.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, milk powder revenue of 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. It is expected that some of them will benefit from the consolidation of Aoyou, cold drink revenue of 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%, and other categories revenue of 80 million, a year-on-year increase of 262%. The gross profit margin of 1q products increased by 34.2 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of expenses, during the Olympic Games, the company strengthened its marketing publicity, and the content of the Winter Olympics reached 90% of Chinese consumers. The marketing overweight increased the sales expense rate by 1.18 percentage points to 18.14% year-on-year during the reporting period, driving the comprehensive expense rate to rise by 0.69 percentage points to 21.48%.
The company completed the acquisition of all shares of Aoyou in March, with a current shareholding of 59.17%, and its competitiveness in milk powder category will be further strengthened in the future. In addition, the company has mastered the high-quality milk source of Youran animal husbandry and Zhongdi dairy, the largest dairy farming enterprise in China, and acquired Westland dairy, the second largest dairy cooperative in New Zealand overseas. The milk source is rich in resources. Although the price of fresh milk is high this year, the increase continues to narrow, and the cost pressure is expected to be further reduced. With the continuous improvement of brand influence and the differentiation of market competition, the profitability of the company will continue to improve.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the net profit will be 10.3 billion and 12 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3% and 16.7% respectively. The EPS will be 1.61 yuan and 1.88 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 24 times and 20 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the terminal mobile sales were less than expected, and the industry competition exceeded expectations
