\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 029 Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) )
Import substitution of automation equipment promotes the rise of domestic FA parts
With the reduction of the number of school-age labor force in China, the rise of labor costs, the support of national industrial policies, and the continuous expansion of production capacity in downstream industries such as 3C, lithium battery, photovoltaic, automobile, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , medical testing and semiconductor, "machine replacement" has become an inevitable trend. The market capacity of the automation equipment industry is large, and the total output value maintains the growth trend. At the same time, it promotes the growth of the market scale of the automation equipment parts industry. In 2020, the total output value of China's general machinery parts industry will reach 476.3 billion yuan, and the scale of the industrial automation control market will increase from 142.8 billion yuan in 2016 to 206.3 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of 9.63%. According to the industrial control network, the scale of China's industrial automation control market will reach 236 billion yuan in 2022. In addition, the market differentiation of China's automation parts industry is obvious, and traditional industrial powers such as Germany and Japan still occupy an important position in the high-end field of automation parts. With the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, a number of domestic automation equipment enterprises have emerged in 3C, high-end machine tools, semiconductors, new energy and other fields, which has further promoted the localization rate of China's equipment and parts.
There is a strong demand for emerging industries, and one-stop solutions broaden the moat
China's lithium battery, photovoltaic, semiconductor, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other industries have strong demand, which has significantly improved the prosperity of upstream FA parts. According to GGII, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles in the middle of 2021 was 3.55 million, with a year-on-year increase of 160%, while the demand for lithium battery production equipment reached 57.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100%; According to Irena, in 2021, the global PV installed capacity was 133gw, with a year-on-year increase of 19%; According to Simi, the global sales of semiconductor equipment reached 102.6 billion US dollars in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. Among them, Chinese Mainland has once again become the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, with sales reaching US $29.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58%, accounting for 41.6% of the global total. The company's FA parts are mainly for emerging industries. By the end of 2021, the company has the capacity of 1.1 million SKUs, and its ability to provide customers with one-stop procurement of parts has been further strengthened. In terms of capacity expansion, the company built a dense automatic three-dimensional warehouse with high-density dynamic storage, intelligent material distribution and automatic picking in 2021. The establishment of three-dimensional warehouse greatly improves the efficiency of storage and shipment, and the annual order processing volume in 2021 is about 760000; The total number of shipments is about 3.3 million. The company has a solid leading position in the field of FA parts. Driven by the high prosperity of emerging industries, the company's revenue scale and penetration are expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.52 billion yuan, 3.48 billion yuan and 4.7 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 577 million yuan, 826 million yuan and 1.14 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 38, 27 and 19 times respectively. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips
Boom fluctuation risk of downstream industrial automation industry; Risk of new product development; Intensified market competition and risk of declining profitability; The management risks faced by the company's scale expansion; The risk of downstream demand decline caused by repeated covid-19 epidemic.
