\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 73 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) )
Key investment points
The performance of 21 years was in line with the expectation, and the performance of 22q1 was affected by the epidemic, which was slightly lower than the expectation
Revenue of 2.817 billion (+ 56.66%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan (+ 21.98%); The net profit after non deduction was 269 million yuan (+ 19.20%). Among them, 21q4 achieved an income of 856 million yuan (+ 40.43%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855359 million yuan (+ 16.58%), and the performance in 21 years was in line with expectations.
22q1 achieved an income of 630 million (+ 8.83%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 400201 million yuan (- 45.29%); The net profit after non deduction was 391392 million yuan (- 45.64%), of which the share based payment fee was about 19.47 million yuan. The growth rate of the company's 21q1 performance decreased, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and the dislocation of the Spring Festival stock period.
In the past 21 years, frozen baking has maintained rapid growth, and baking raw materials have increased rapidly
Frozen baking business: the revenue reached 1.718 billion yuan (+ 79.70%), still maintaining rapid growth, accounting for 61%. Specifically, the scale of cassava in 21 years is about 600 million yuan, and the tarts are about 350 million yuan; Frozen cakes and doughnuts will reach about 270300 million respectively; Crispy products have a scale of nearly 200 million; The income scale of cake products is expected to be 100 million.
Baking raw materials business: realized revenue of 1.096 billion yuan (+ 28.65%); Among them, the income of cream was 471 million yuan (+ 26.95%); The revenue of fruit products was 218 million yuan (+ 29.27%); The revenue of sauce business was 184 million yuan (+ 33.17%); Other raw materials achieved 224 million yuan (+ 28.07%).
In the past 21 years, benefiting from the rapid growth of supermarket channels, direct sales channels have achieved rapid growth
In the 21st year, the distribution channel reached 1.835 billion yuan (+ 30.35%), and the direct sales channel reached 960 million yuan (+ 144.60%), mainly due to the rapid growth of supermarkets such as Sam's Club; The retail channel achieved RMB 1987 million (+ 140.33%).
22q1 affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of each business first decreased compared with the previous period
The growth rate of frozen baking in 22q1 was steady, and the revenue of frozen baking by product was 372 million yuan (+ 11.14%), accounting for 59%; Baking raw materials achieved a revenue of 258 million yuan (+ 5.57%), accounting for 41%. The growth rate of 22q1 decreased, mainly because it was greatly affected by the epidemic in March; The growth rate of the raw material side is slightly lower. We think it has the impact of organizational structure adjustment.
Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the gross and net profit margin of the company decreased slightly
Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin was 34.90% (- 3.37pct) in 21 years and 33.09% (- 3.40pct) in 22q1. The gross profit margin decreased slightly, mainly due to the increase of raw material cost. Expense rate: the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates in 21 years are 12.94% (- 1.06pct), 6.16% (+ 1.38pct), 2.92% (+ 0.01pct) and - 0.12% (- 0.12pct) respectively; 22q1 company achieved sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 12.99% (- 0.14pct), 8.88% (+ 4.75pct), 3.47% (+ 1.19pct) and - 0.14% (- 0.18pct) respectively. Among them, the increase of management fee rate is mainly due to the payment of new equity in the current period. Net interest rate: 10.05% (-2.78pct) in 21 years and 6.36% (-6.29pct) in 22q1.
The epidemic situation and rising costs affect the company's performance in the short term, and the long-term logic remains unchanged
The company's performance maintained rapid growth in 21 years, but the performance of 22q1 was affected and slightly lower than expected due to the epidemic and the continuous rise of costs. In the short term, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the demand of some regions has been greatly affected, and the efficiency of logistics has slowed down. If the subsequent epidemic gradually improves, the demand for purchase and replenishment of stores will recover, and the impact on performance in the short term is limited. In the medium and long term, there are still dividends in the freeze baking industry. Although more manufacturers enter, the company has advantages in production management, production capacity and channels. It is suggested to make a long-term layout.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the impact of the epidemic on performance and cost pressure are still large, we slightly lowered our previous profit forecast and maintained the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.522/44.56/5.729 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.03% / 26.52% / 28.56% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 311 / 436 / 639 million yuan respectively (the value was 340 / 469 million yuan respectively 22-23 years ago), with a year-on-year increase of 9.86% / 40.27% / 46.37% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.47/2.06/3.02 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 46.28/32.99/22.54 times respectively.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic repeatedly affects terminal demand, and the cost of raw materials continues to rise.
