\u3000\u300 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 9 Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) )
Business data: under the influence of the epidemic, the passenger throughput fell sharply, and the international freight throughput maintained growth
Q1 in Shenzhen is under repeated epidemic control, and strict sealing and control measures are implemented in many districts. From January, the intermittent implementation of “unnecessary and deep”, which takes 48 hours to prove.
1) the passenger throughput in Q1 was 4.3 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, and that in China and the world decreased by 53% and 50% respectively. In March, the spring vomit volume of tourists in a single month fell by 88%, and that of China International fell by 88% and 59% respectively.
2) Q1 cargo and mail throughput decreased by 10% year-on-year, and China, regions and international decreased by – 25%, + 5% and 11% respectively.
3) there were 53000 takeoff and landing sorties of flight Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 34%
Cost: the satellite hall is put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in cost.
1) the company’s Q1 operating cost was 910 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, mainly due to the depreciation and amortization and related supporting costs caused by the commissioning of the satellite hall. The decline in revenue + the rise in costs led to the decrease of Q1 gross profit margin to – 40.88%.
2) Q1 sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate are + 0.1pct, + 0.7pct and + 8.44pct respectively. The significant increase in financial expense rate is mainly due to the recognition of interest expense of lease liabilities in the new lease standards.
Future outlook: in the short term, we are optimistic about the recovery of China’s travel demand and the growth of freight business, and in the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the release of tax-free business brought by the promotion of internationalization and the production of satellite hall.
In the short term, the launch of the satellite hall will bring greater cost pressure to the company. The proportion of Chinese tourists of the company is higher than Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , which is expected to benefit from the recovery of China’s civil aviation travel demand to the greatest extent. Based on the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the company continues to open and encrypt cargo aircraft destinations and open new freight routes. It is expected that the freight business will help the growth of the company. From the medium and long-term perspective, the satellite hall has been put into operation in December 21, which will bring new development opportunities for the company’s tax-free and taxable retail business.
Profit forecast and valuation we expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve operating revenue of RMB 3889 million, RMB 4404 million and RMB 4769 million, net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB – 500 million / – 57.88 million / RMB 150 million, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of the epidemic is less than expected, and the investment attraction is less than expected.
