\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event: the company announced the results of the first quarter of 2022, realizing a revenue of 9.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.48% and a month on month increase of + 16.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 675 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 39.08% and a month on month increase of + 258.05%; The gross profit margin was 13.97%, with a year-on-year increase of - 9.47 percentage points and a month on month increase of + 4.07 percentage points; The net interest rate was 6.99%, with a year-on-year increase of -7.55 percentage points and a month on month increase of + 4.70 percentage points.
The recovery of paper price combined with the boom of pulp price improved the profitability of Q1 month on month. On a year-on-year basis, the Beihai project increased the company's revenue, but the average price of cultural paper was lower than that in the same period last year, and the high cost of raw materials and energy dragged down the company's profitability. However, on a month on month basis, the gross profit margin of the company has been significantly repaired, mainly due to: (1) the market price of pulp has increased significantly since Q1 due to the influence of supply side factors (strike of overseas pulp mills, poor transportation, delayed production capacity, etc.). The average price of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp was + 17% and + 19% month on month. Dissolved pulp benefited from good downstream demand and pulp price support, and the market price of Q1 also increased significantly, with a month on month increase of + 5%. The profitability of the company's externally sold pulp and dissolved pulp (the total revenue of 2021h2 accounts for 14%) has been significantly improved. (2) The market price of cultural paper (2021h2 revenue accounts for 38%) is supported by the rise of pulp price, and benefits from the demand in peak season, the increase of export, the weakening of import competition, the improvement of industry supply and demand conditions, and the smooth implementation of price increase of paper enterprises. The market prices of double offset paper and coated paper were + 5% and + 6% month on month. With a high self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp (55-60%), the company has stabilized the impact of rising pulp costs and fully benefited from the rise in the price of cultural paper. (3) Box board paper (2021h2 revenue accounts for 34%) Q1 is in the traditional off-season, with the market price of - 3% month on month. At the same time, the price of upstream waste paper has increased. However, the company's products are relatively high-end, and has a diversified supply of raw materials such as self-made semi chemical pulp and natural color pulp, so its profitability is relatively strong.
The price increase in Q2 industry is expected to transmit cost pressure, and pay attention to epidemic control and peak season demand. At present, the overall cost pressure of the pulp and paper industry is still large, in which the supply of wood pulp is still tight, and the pulp price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, pushing up the average cost of raw material inventory of paper enterprises; The high price of thermal coal keeps the energy cost at a high level. Many paper enterprises plan to raise the product price by 200 yuan / ton from May 1, which is expected to transmit the cost pressure and maintain the basic profitability of the industry. With the integrated layout of pulp and paper, the profitability of cultural paper is expected to be improved. At the same time, the company is expected to maintain a high profit level of pulp products. The current epidemic has affected the transportation and downstream demand of China's finished paper, and suppressed the price increase of paper enterprises to a certain extent. It is suggested to pay attention to the control progress of the follow-up epidemic in China and the release of demand in the peak season of the industry in the future. The pace of capacity expansion is clear and the cost advantage is stable. While the new capacity continues to be released in 2021, the company is expected to put into operation 100000 tons of household paper and 34000 tons of special paper projects from the second half of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, the other planned production capacity of Guangxi project phase III (1 million tons of packaging paper + 50000 tons of household paper + 610000 tons of chemical pulp) and the planned Guangxi Nanning project (2.2 million tons of packaging paper + 400000 tons of special paper + Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of plastic substitute paper + 1.65 million tons of chemical pulp + 400000 tons of mechanical pulp) lay the foundation for the company's long-term expansion. The company's Guangxi base and Laos base are expected to form synergy in Forest Pulp paper integration and logistics transportation, so as to consolidate the company's cost advantage.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.107, 3.480 and 3.782 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 1.16, 1.30 and 1.41 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 11, 10 and 9 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the epidemic fluctuation affects supply and demand, the industry competition intensifies, and the production progress of the project is less than expected.
