\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
\u3000\u30001. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) resumption: product life cycle dominates enterprise business cycle.
The operation and product life cycle of Yanghe enterprise can be divided into three stages: 1) the first stage: from 2003 to 2012, the period of rapid product growth under the background of the golden decade; 2) The second stage: from 2013 to 2018, re growth after short-term adjustment; 3) The third stage: from 2019 to now, the large ship with reduced speed will set sail again. In July 2019, general manager Liu Huashuang took office as party secretary and chairman of sujiu Group Trading Co., Ltd. (sales company), comprehensively started the adjustment of sales work, and promoted organizational division and marketing reform; M6 + will be launched in November 2019 and dream blue crystal will be launched in November 2020; In February 2021, Zhang Liandong was appointed as the chairman of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Co., Ltd. and has been in charge of sales since June. Equity incentive has been implemented. Yanghe has entered a new round of enterprise business cycle driven by personnel cycle + product life cycle. We believe that the core of the company's new growth cycle is the self revolutionary innovation mechanism of products, organization and marketing.
\u3000\u30002. Dream Blue helps improve the structure and strengthen the business cycle of digital marketing.
This round of reform is expected to accelerate the company's marginal revenue in 2022. The main points are as follows: 1) occupy the second high-end challenge price, and M6 + contributes to the core increment. M6 + / Dream Blue · crystal version / sky blue occupy the second place in the high-end Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) yuan challenge price / 400600 yuan core price / 300 yuan entry price respectively, benefiting from the rapid growth of subdivided prices and the improvement of channel profits after the upgrading of core items. It is expected that dream blue is expected to become the source of core sales growth of the company, and sky blue is also expected to contribute to the increase with the growth of the industry; 2) The basic market of sea blue is expected to remain stable. Benefiting from the deep destocking, haizhilan channel is healthy. In the future, it is expected to reshape the channel value chain through product replacement and maintain the basic stability of products at the price of 100 yuan; 3) Deepen marketing reform, digital operation and strengthen business cycle. Yanghe realized f2b2b2c digital operation through "one thing, one code" + small program, and the scanning rate of channels and consumers exceeded 80%. By mastering the actual demand of consumers to match the delivery at the supply end, Yanghe formed a long-term tight balance between market supply and demand. In the past two years, the company's channel inventory has steadily declined, and digital operation helps to prolong the product life cycle and strengthen the business cycle of the enterprise.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "recommended" rating: the company has basically completed the product, organization, marketing and other reforms, and the reform dividend is to be released. After the new chairman takes office, he will be fully in charge of sales, promote the implementation of equity incentive, and help the company open a new round of enterprise business cycle driven by personnel cycle + product life cycle. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 30.4/35.4/40.4 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10 / 12.5/14.7 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price will be 24 / 19 / 16x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) economic fluctuations exceed expectations, affect the demand of secondary high-end price, and squeeze the growth space of dream series; 2) The intensified competition in the core market inside or outside the province caused the dynamic sales of leading products to be less than expected; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
