\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the performance report of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 13.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.93%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.90%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 3.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 329 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.77%. 22q1 revenue was 5.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.90%.
Comments:
21q4 is expected to have excellent cash flow indicators due to the low level of pre expense net interest rate. The company’s revenue and net profit in 21 years were basically consistent with the express report, and the gross profit margin in 21 years decreased slightly to 75.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in the gross profit margin of other businesses. In 21 years, the sales expense rate was 30.2%, the management expense rate was 7.7%, and the net interest rate was 17.89%. The expense rate remained stable as a whole. At the end of the year, the contract liabilities were RMB 1.825 billion, a month on month decrease of RMB 967 million, the sales collection was RMB 15.533 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 43.73%, and the operating net cash flow was RMB 5.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 44.96%. The indicators of sales collection and operating net cash flow were excellent. The sales expense rate of single Q4 is + 0.96pct year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly due to the pre impact of Spring Festival expenses, the management expense rate is -1.88pct year-on-year, the scale effect is reflected, and the net interest rate is -3.27pct to 10.92% year-on-year, which is mainly due to the decrease of financial expense rate year-on-year.
In the year of 21, the original pulp height increased in double digits, and the contribution of Yellow Crane Tower and Mingguang increased. In the year of 21, the revenue of raw pulp reached 9.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 19%. The mainstream price band of gu8 card slot enjoys the dividend of consumption upgrading in the province. It is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Gu16 + GU20 card slot is the secondary high-end, and the brand strength in Gujing province is strong. We expect that the volume of statement end in the year of 21 will exceed 1.5 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin under the upgrading of raw pulp products in the year will increase by 1.7pct to 83.2% Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) revenue was 1.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17%, and gross profit margin decreased by 1.6pct to 58.6%. With the recovery of the epidemic in Wuhan in 21 years, the Yellow Crane Tower achieved a revenue of 1.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 169%, and the gross profit margin increased by 6.5pct to 75.1%. Gujing’s acquisition of Mingguang liquor industry in 21 years also contributed to the revenue. The ton price of raw pulp and Yellow Crane Tower increased in the year, but the Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ton price decreased. The number of dealers reached 4007 at the end of the 21st century, 1237 new dealers were added in the 21st year, 657 fewer. The overall liquidity of the dealer system is large.
22q1 contract liabilities increased significantly month on month, and Huijiu was the leader with strong momentum. 22q1 gross profit margin increased by 0.91pct to 77.9% year-on-year, continuing the trend of product upgrading. The business tax rate was – 1.21pct to 14.42%, the sales expense rate was + 0.64pct to 30.16% and the management expense rate was + 0.46pct to 6.08% year-on-year. The overall expense side remained high and high, and the net interest rate of 22q1 was 21.46%, up + 1.14pct year-on-year. Q1 contract liabilities / revenue reached a peak of 79% (50%, 30%, 47% and 42% respectively in the same period of 20182021), and the momentum is obvious. Considering the shortage of goods in the channel at the beginning of the year, the company’s light inventory and high payment collection show that the company has high risk resistance ability. Under the policy guidance of steady growth and increasing infrastructure investment, Gujing is expected to fully benefit.
It is expected to exceed the business plan in 22 years and continue to benefit from the upgrading of consumption in Anhui Province in the medium and long term. Since March, the epidemic has broken out in many places in China. In the short term, the epidemic may have an impact on Baijiu business and wedding banquet consumption. The purchasing habit of Hui liquor Festival is relatively obvious. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic on the Dragon Boat Festival. The company has put forward a 22-year business plan, in which it plans to achieve a revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year +15.3%, and a total profit of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year +11.94%. Most of the business plans formulated by the company in the past 17 years have been overfulfilled, It is also expected to be over completed in 22 years. In the medium term of 3-5 years, the economic vitality in Anhui Province has been strong in recent years, which has continued to promote the upgrading of Baijiu consumption. Gujing, as the leader of Anhui liquor, is expected to achieve rapid growth of gu8 and above products, and gu16+ GU20 are expected to continue to increase in the secondary high-end price zone with the brand potential, so as to promote Gujing to achieve the goal of double 10 billion yuan.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: we expect that the earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.96 yuan, 7.49 yuan and 9.07 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk, repeated epidemic situation and intensified competition in the province.
