\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Public funds maintain a leading edge, and institutional business is expected to contribute to the increment
The company's operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 were 4.774 billion yuan and 1.303 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 43% / - 49%, and an annualized roe of 4.5% 9%, the performance was lower than our expectation, mainly due to the sharp decline in 2022q1 stock market, which dragged down the company's proprietary investment income. Considering the adverse impact of equity market fluctuations on the business of securities companies in 2022, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 to 10.14/132.5/16.99 billion (11.45/139.7/17.24 billion before the adjustment), which were - 6.6% / + 30.7% / + 28.2% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding EPS were 1.3/1.7/2.2 yuan respectively. "16 opinions on the high-quality development of public funds" and the top-level plan of individual pension are implemented, and the company's e fund and GF fund, as head public offering institutions, are expected to benefit for a long time. The profit contribution of the company's large wealth management line is high (up to 29% in 2021), the investment banking business is expected to recover, and the derivatives and other institutional businesses are expected to gradually contribute to the incremental performance. The current share price of the company corresponds to pb1.2 in 2022 1 times, the valuation has a margin of safety and maintains the "buy" rating.
Non monetary AUM of its public funds increased slightly year-on-year, and the investment banking business is expected to recover
(1) in 2022q1, the company's asset management business revenue was 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 1.3%, which is expected to be mainly contributed by Guangfa fund and Guangfa asset management. According to wind data, at the end of Q1, gf's non monetary aum6277.7 billion was - 6.3% compared with the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year increase of + 10%, ranking third in the industry. At the end of Q1, GF fund shares + mixed fund aum403 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 5%. (2) In 2022q1, the company's investment income in associates and joint ventures was 74 million, with a year-on-year decrease of - 80%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the year-on-year decrease in the investment income of its direct investment and other businesses. At the end of Q1, e-square reached aum1083.8 billion in non cargo base, with a year-on-year increase of - 8.9% and + 18.8% compared with the beginning of the year, ranking first in the industry. At the end of Q1, e fund + mixed fund aum561.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 12%. (3) Investment banking revenue in the first quarter was 150 million, a year-on-year increase of + 27%. As of April 29, the company's total IPO reserves (except for the filing during the counseling period) amounted to 11, and the investment banking business is expected to recover.
It is expected that the consignment income will drag down the brokerage business, and the sharp decline in the stock market will affect the income of self operated investment
(1) in 2022q1 market, the daily average stock base turnover was 1.09 trillion yuan, up + 7.3% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the company's brokerage business income was 1.65 billion yuan, up - 9.8% year-on-year. It is expected to be mainly dragged down by the cold of new fund issuance in the first quarter and the composition of consignment income (the company's consignment income accounted for 14% of brokerage business in 2021). At the end of 2022q1, the company financed 88.5 billion yuan, accounting for - 9% of the year beginning, accounting for 5.60% of the market, and -0.08 pct of the year beginning. (2) The return on investment in financial assets of the company in 2022q1 was - 640 million yuan, which was mainly affected by the sharp decline in the stock market. In 2022q1, the CSI 300 fell 14.5% (down 3.1% in the same period), and the China Securities composite bond rose 0.76% (up 0.95% in the same period). At the end of Q1, the company's financial assets reached 158.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56%.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
