\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 001 Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) )
The sharp rise in coal prices promotes high performance growth, and the deepening of national reform can be expected. Maintain “buy” rating
The company issued an annual report, and achieved a revenue of 18.27 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 67.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 431.9%. At the same time, the company released its first quarterly report. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 78.2%. Benefiting from the sharp rise of coal price, the production and sales of the company have increased steadily, and the implementation of fine management has greatly exceeded the expectation in 2021. Most of the company’s commercial coal is sold in the long-term association mode. In 2022, the national development and Reform Commission implemented a strict price limit policy, which exceeded expectations. We lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 5.85/61.1/63.2 (the previous value was 6.49/67.4 in 20222023), a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / 4.5% / 3.3%; EPS is 3.49/3.65/3.77 yuan, corresponding to 3.5/3.4/3.3 times the current share price PE. The company is backed by Jinneng holding group. According to the national reform policy of Shanxi, the group has injected expectations into high-quality assets and has broad growth space. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The volume and price of coal business rose at the same time, and the performance in 2021 was much higher than expected
The performance of coal business rose sharply. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 17.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70%; Gross profit was 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 160.5%. Actively participate in the supply guarantee, and the production and sales have increased steadily. In 2021, the raw coal output will be 349727 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 10.6%; The sales volume was 303651 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 10.8%. The profitability was enhanced, and the company sold 583 yuan / ton of coal, a year-on-year increase of + 53.5%; The cost per ton of coal was 257 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%, and the gross profit per ton of coal was 326 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 135.2%. The company implemented refined management, increased cost reduction and efficiency increase, the cost change was significantly less than the increase of coal price, and the overall profitability of coal business was enhanced.
In 2022, the benchmark price of the association was raised, which was good for the company’s annual performance
In 2022, Q1 coal business achieved a revenue of 4.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.1%; The output of raw coal was 8.6301 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 4.5%; The sales volume was 6.996 million tons, a year-on-year increase of – 5.5%. The company’s selling price per ton of coal was 573 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 73.6 yuan / ton; The cost per ton of coal was 280 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 81.7%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 293 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 66.6%; The gross profit margin was 51.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.16pct. Most of the company’s coal is sold in the long-term association mode. In 2022, the benchmark price of the long-term association was raised from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, which is conducive to the release of the company’s annual performance.
The company and the group have signed a new agreement to solve horizontal competition, and the injection of high-quality assets is expected
Relying on the newly established “energy aircraft carrier” Jinneng holding group, as its only coal listing platform, the company is expected to obtain further injection of high-quality coal assets and have a large growth space in the future. At present, the group’s total coal production capacity is about 404 million tons / year, and the company’s equity production capacity is only 27.35 million tons / year. The group’s asset securitization rate is lower than the government’s requirements. In the future, the group is expected to accelerate asset securitization. Under the expected background of injecting high-quality coal assets into listed companies, the company’s production capacity still has great room for improvement.
Risk tip: the economic growth is down, the progress of asset securitization is less than expected, and the coal price has fallen sharply
