\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Event: the company announced after hours on April 29 that the company had signed a cooperation agreement with Dunan group and China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) Hangzhou branch, and planned to invest 7.68 billion yuan to acquire the asset package of Dunan group, including 1) the price of 100% equity of Jinshi mining under Dunan group was 4.9 billion yuan; 2) The Rushan investment project held by Dunan group is valued at 710 million yuan; 3) Dunan group and its related parties hold 260 million shares of Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(002226) ( Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(002226) . SZ) tradable shares with unlimited sales conditions at a price of 1.42 billion yuan; 4) Dunan group holds 89.07 million shares of Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) ( Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) . SZ) tradable shares with unlimited sales conditions at a price of 650 million yuan.
Comments:
Large resource reserves and low magnesium lithium ratio. Jinshi mining holds 70% of the equity of Lago resources company, which owns the lagocuo Salt Lake Lithium mine project in Gaize County, Ali, Tibet. Lagocuo Salt Lake is a large sodium sulfate subtype brine lake to be developed. The project has large resource scale, stable grade and low magnesium lithium ratio. The announcement shows that by the end of 2012, the retained resources of lagocuo Salt Lake were converted into 2.14 million tons of lithium carbonate (which can be regarded as reserves), and the average lithium ion concentration was 270 mg / L; The ratio of magnesium to lithium is 3.32, accompanied by 3.82 million tons of boron oxide with an average content of 2.57 g / L, 7.44 million tons of potassium chloride with an average content of 5.13 g / L, as well as sodium chloride, magnesium chloride, rubidium oxide and cesium oxide.
The process was adjusted and upgraded, and the capacity of lithium carbonate in phase I was expanded to 20000 tons / year and 50000 tons / year in phase II. According to the announcement, the planned lithium carbonate capacity of lagocuo salt lake was 10000 tons / year. After on-site investigation, technical and experimental research, external technical experts and the company's technical team believe that the project has significant room for expansion, and the process and technical route can be adjusted to a more environmentally friendly and economical "adsorption + membrane treatment" combined process; The process is mature, with little difficulty in implementation and short construction cycle. If the new process is adopted, the production capacity of phase I is proposed to be adjusted to 20000 tons / year of lithium carbonate, and that of phase II is proposed to be raised to 50000 tons / year.
It is expected to form a lithium carbonate production capacity of more than 50000 tons / year in 2025. On March 20, the first lithium project of the company, the construction project of 3q salt lake lithium in Argentina, was started. The first phase of lithium carbonate with an annual output of 20000 tons is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023; At the same time, the company is arranging hard rock lithium cooperation and exploration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The announcement shows that through the acquisition of lagoco Salt Lake, the company has more than 9 million tons of lithium carbonate resource reserves according to equity, and is expected to form an annual capacity of more than 50000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 (comparison: the annual report of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 2021, the world's leading enterprise in the lithium industry, shows that it plans to form a total annual capacity of 300000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025).
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: assuming that the average price of Shanghai gold in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 is 390 / 385 / 380 yuan / g, the average price of Shanghai copper is 7.2 / 6.9 / 65000 yuan / ton, and the average price of Shanghai zinc is 2.5 / 2.4 / 22000 yuan / ton, the company's profit forecast is maintained. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 is 25.5/285323 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 63% / 12% / 13% over the same period, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 11 / 10 / 9 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the downward trend of metal prices exceeded expectations, and the construction of copper gold and other projects was less than expected; Overseas operation risk.
