\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 96 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) )
Event: the company announced that in 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 430 million yuan / yoy + 66.07%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan / yoy + 64.03% attributable to the parent company. Deduct 280 million yuan / yoy + 63.5% of net profit not attributable to parent company.
Revenue growth mainly comes from the volume of hi body series + moistening Angel + bonida. On the one hand, the coverage of institutions has been expanded; On the other hand, it comes from the improvement of product penetration. At the same time, Shuiguang needle has been included in three types of medical devices to expand the compliance market where hi Ti 2.5 + huihuo bubble needle is located. Among them, hi Ti series is expected to achieve 280 million yuan / yoy + 46%, accounting for 68%. Yubai angel is expected to achieve 50 million yuan of income, which is higher than Q4 in 21 years. At present, the core of the company's share price lies in the impact of industrial policies on the consumption outlook + the accelerated penetration of core products + the expectation of marginal changes in future demand. According to the Q1 net profit in 2022 released by L'Oreal, LVMH and Hermes group (year-on-year + 18% / + 29% / + 33% respectively), the consumption outlook of "Yueji" is still high, and the elasticity is more obvious after the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies in Europe and America. For the company, the impact of the epidemic in March is limited to the logistics level and areas with serious epidemic in East China. For the company, the impact is controllable and is expected to improve marginally. The demand for medical beauty will not disappear, and the demand after the epidemic is expected to be replenished quickly. At the same time, in May and June, demand accelerated under the catalysis of summer, holidays and promotional festivals.
The profit quality is further improved, the impact of policies on the industry is straightened out, and favorable market policies occur frequently. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 94.45% / yoy + 1.95pct, month on month + 0.38pct; The net profit margin on sales was 65.03% / yoy + 1.09pct, a month on month increase of + 6.44pct. Expense side: sales expenses / management expenses / R & D expenses are 54 / 22 / 29 million yuan respectively, yoy + 92.85% / + 83.33% / + 26.08%; The corresponding sales / management / R & D expense rates are 12.5% / 5.1% / 6.7%, yoy + 1.69pct / + 0.5pct / - 2.1pct respectively.
The product hard core logic remains unchanged and will deeply benefit from the product compliance regulatory policy. The company's products are the only compliant composite solution products in the Shuiguang needle market, with broad market prospects; According to the data of new oxygen, the terminal price of Rubai angel is 12800 yuan / piece, which not only has high cost performance among the limited competitive products, but also can bring large profit space to the organization. At present, the layout of non epidemic areas is accelerated. 2022q1 favorable policies appear frequently: the conditions for doctors to open medical and aesthetic clinics were relaxed in the draft of the measures for the administration of clinic filing on January 24; On March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over the meeting of the finance committee, pointing out that the positive introduction of policies beneficial to the market and the prudent introduction of contractionary policies have greatly boosted market confidence; On April 13, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that we should promote the consumption of medical and health care, elderly care and childcare, and support social forces to make up for the shortage of service supply.
Investment suggestions: we think: 1 Basically, with the implementation of subsequent supporting policies to promote consumption, medical and American consumption is expected to benefit significantly after the inflection point of local epidemics in the future; 2. On the emotional side, it is expected to further eliminate the policy concerns of the market and alleviate the factors of valuation repression. In addition, botulinum toxin type A, hyaluronic acid gel for new indications, liraglutide injection, second-generation facial implant line, hyaluronidase, deoxycholic acid drugs (lipolytic needle) and other products under development, which the company cooperates with huansbio of South Korea, have been successfully promoted, and will continue to strengthen the company's position as a light medicine dragon head. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.94/10.06/13.48 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 75 / 51 / 38x, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic to logistics failure, macroeconomic downturn.
