Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
Event: on April 29, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 41.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 194.35%.
Coal production and sales fell slightly and prices rose sharply. In the first quarter of 2022, the company produced 25.15 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 4.6%, of which: Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) energy and chemical output decreased by 1022000 tons, a decrease of 25.79%; The output of Haosheng coal industry decreased by 558000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 67.89%, mainly due to the restrictions on coal production due to the impact of safety and environmental protection policies. In the first quarter, the company sold 25.26 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 4%. In terms of price, the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 997.09 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 76.44%. According to the announcement, the comprehensive cost of commercial coal in the first quarter of 2022 was 448.14 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.12% year-on-year. The gross profit of coal business was 13.871 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144.81%, and the gross profit margin was 55.06%, with a year-on-year increase of 16.95 percentage points.
The volume and price of coal chemical industry have risen simultaneously, and the cost has increased rapidly. In terms of coal chemical business, the company’s chemical output was 1.663 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the chemical sales volume was 1.557 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.59%. The unit sales revenue of chemical products was 420745 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 24.67%, the unit sales cost was 321773 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, the gross profit of coal chemical business was 1.541 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.56%, the gross profit margin was 23.52%, a year-on-year increase of 7.63 percentage points.
The gross profit of power business increased significantly year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved 200185 million kwh of power generation, with a year-on-year increase of 6.82%, and 164461 million kwh of power sales, with a year-on-year increase of 8.89%. An important reason for the year-on-year increase of power generation and sales of the company is that the supporting power plant of Lunan chemical caprolactam project was put into operation, and the external power sales increased year-on-year. The gross profit of power business was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 287.5%. The gross profit margin of the company’s power business was 9.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points, with obvious advantages of coal power integration.
Overseas coal prices continued to rise, and the Australian division is expected to contribute to the performance increment. Since 2022, affected by the recovery of overseas demand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, overseas energy prices have continued to grow. According to wind data, since April 2022, the average price of Newcastle thermal coal and Australia Fengjing coking coal have increased by 191.8% and 208.56% respectively compared with the average price of 2021q2. The continuous rise in Australian coal prices is expected to drive the performance release of Yanmei Australia and Yanmei Australia. In addition, also affected by the energy shortage, the crude oil price remained high, which helped to increase the price of the company’s chemicals and improve the profitability of the company’s chemical business.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 25.968 billion yuan, 27.197 billion yuan and 28.112 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 5.25/5.50/5.68 yuan / share respectively, and PE of the stock price on April 29, 2022 will be 7 times, 6 times and 6 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic growth slows down and coal prices fall sharply; 2) The price of chemicals fell sharply; 3) The transformation and development is slower than expected.
