\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 546 Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) )
Event: on April 29, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 48.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 497.42%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 418.23%.
Prices rose significantly, and the gross profit margin of self-produced coal increased significantly. In 2021, the company achieved a raw coal output of 404192 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5142 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.63%, a commercial coal output (self-produced coal) of 374598 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%, and a self-produced coal sales volume of 373796 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.54%. The selling price of self-produced coal was 634.51 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 94.39%, and the cost per ton of coal was 180.95 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 16.24%. The gross profit margin of the company’s self-produced coal was 71.48%, a year-on-year increase of 19.17 percentage points. The company’s self-produced coal cost is still at a low level in the industry, and the low production cost ensures the company’s profit space. Combined with the company’s flexible pricing mechanism, the company has sufficient profit space, and its performance is expected to be fully released in the upward cycle of coal price.
The gross profit margin of trade coal increased slightly. In terms of trade coal, the company sold 308097 million tons of trade coal in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 44.78%, the unit sales price of trade coal was 765.09 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 85.17%, and the unit sales cost was 732.77 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 83.43%. The comprehensive gross profit margin of coal trade business was 4.22%, a year-on-year increase of 0.91 percentage points.
A high proportion of dividends exceeded expectations, with a dividend yield of 11.15%. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 15.67 (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, with a cumulative cash dividend of RMB 3.107 billion, accounting for 62.91% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021. Based on the stock price on April 29, 2022, the dividend rate is 11.15%, which is at a high level in the market.
The price rose sharply, driving the release of 22q1 performance. According to the announcement, from January to February 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent of about 842 million yuan, and then realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 811 million yuan in a single month in March. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a raw coal output of 9.1267 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04%, and achieved a sales volume of 121584 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year decrease of 45.26%, of which the sales volume of trade coal was 3.0317 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 75.1%. The comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 877.98 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 111.3%, the sales cost per ton of coal was 497.65 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin of coal business was 43.3%, a year-on-year increase of 23.3 percentage points.
Investment suggestion: the proportion of the company’s long-term cooperative is low and the performance flexibility is strong. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.439 billion yuan, 7.832 billion yuan and 7.935 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 3.75/3.95/4.00 yuan / share respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 29, 2022 will be 4 times, 4 times and 4 times respectively, which is of low valuation in the industry. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply, and the construction progress of new energy projects is less than expected.
