\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Event: on the evening of April 29, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, with a revenue of 85.17 billion yuan, yoy + 10.1%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 24.98 billion yuan, yoy + 17.8%; The non-performing rate is 0.82%, and the provision coverage rate is 414%; ROE14. 82%。
The performance growth was steady, and the medium income growth rate rose again. As of 22q1, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue was -1.2pct, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company was slightly -0.8pct. Split the year-on-year growth rate of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of net interest income was -2.2pct, mainly due to the significant year-on-year narrowing of net interest margin; The year-on-year growth rate of net handling fee income is as high as 39.6%, with a month on month increase of + 6.2pct. It is expected to rank among the top three A-share listed banks, reflecting the continuous improvement of wealth management; Although the year-on-year growth rate of other non interest income fell month on month, it remained at a high level, mainly due to the significant rise of investment income under the adjustment of investment structure and the improvement of liquidity. From the perspective of net profit contribution factors, the scale expansion provides stable and solid support, the provision back feeding profit is weakened, the positive pulling effect of medium income is strengthened, and the drag effect of narrowing net interest margin is strengthened. In a single quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue was -4.8pct month on month. Under the low base effect, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly by 15.1pct month on month.
Active credit supply is expected to drive the net interest margin to stabilize and improve. The measured net interest margin in the single quarter of 22q1 was – 8bp month on month, which was mainly affected by the 12bp month on month decline in the rate of return on interest bearing assets (measured value). As of 22q1, the year-on-year growth rate of loans was 13.9%, month on month + 0.8pct, leading the total assets by 3PCT, and the asset structure tended to improve. On the liability side, the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities is – 4bp month on month. With the continuous release of the effectiveness of wealth management, the precipitation of low-cost liabilities is expected to be more considerable, so as to further optimize the cost ratio. On the whole, the net interest margin of postal savings may be stable and good.
The asset quality remained stable, and the provision coverage was still at a high level. As of 22q1, the non-performing rate was the same as that at the beginning of the year, and the attention rate and overdue rate increased by 1bp and 4bp respectively month on month, which was mainly affected by the decline of repayment ability of some small and micro enterprises and individual customers affected by the epidemic. The provision coverage rate is still at a high level, with sufficient profit space for back feeding. Under the background that the State encourages large banks to reduce the provision rate in an orderly manner, the asset quality is expected to be more solid, and the profit center is likely to rise.
Inclusive Finance was further promoted. As of 22q1, the balance of agriculture related loans had increased by 70 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, contributing 19.4% of the net increase of all loans; The balance of Pratt & Whitney’s small and micro loans exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and its proportion in all loans remained at the forefront of major banks. Inclusive Finance has broad space, especially the accelerated promotion of national strategies such as “Rural Revitalization”, which will give Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) such inclusive “pioneers” considerable growth.
Investment suggestion: the profit keeps high growth, and the wealth management effect is remarkable
Profit growth remained at a high level, wealth management achieved remarkable results, and the medium income growth rate rose again; The net interest margin measured in a single quarter has fallen, and the marginal improvement is expected under the improvement of asset side structure and the continuous layout of wealth management; The asset quality remains stable and the provision coverage remains at a high level. Under the guidance of orderly reduction of provisions, the quality is expected to be more solid and the profit center may rise; The in-depth promotion of Inclusive Finance is an important source of growth. It is estimated that the EPS of 22-24 years will be 0.99 yuan, 1.19 yuan and 1.44 yuan respectively. The closing price on April 29, 2022 corresponds to 0.7 times of 22 years Pb, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic growth rate is down; Frequent epidemic risks; Credit risk exposure.
