\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Event: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) released the first quarter report of 2022.
The cost of raw materials has increased, and the short-term profit is under pressure. Since April, the glass price has bottomed out and rebounded, and the profit is expected to be repaired month on month. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's expanded production capacity was released as scheduled, and the glass shipment volume increased significantly, driving the operating revenue to increase by 70.61% year-on-year to 3.509 billion yuan. In terms of profit, due to the tight glass supply in 2021q1, the price remained high, while the glass supply in 2022q1 was relatively loose, the price was low, and the cost of soda ash and gas increased, resulting in a certain decline in the company's profitability year-on-year / month on month, In the single quarter of 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 437 million yuan, and the net interest rate decreased by 28.29 PCTs and 4.51 PCTs to 12.45% year-on-year / month on month, the lowest quarterly level in recent years. From the quotation of pvinfolink, since April, the price of 3.2mm/2.0mm glass has increased by 1.5 yuan and 1.2 yuan / Ping respectively, and the profit in the second quarter is expected to usher in profit repair.
Accelerate the construction of production lines, form a production capacity of 20600t / D by the end of 2022, and consolidate the leading position. By the end of 2021, the total production capacity of the company had reached 12200t / D (including 2 1000t / D production capacity in Vietnam). According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass in China was 41260 tons by the end of 2021, and the company's production capacity in China accounted for nearly 25%. Considering the higher production yield and operation rate of leading enterprises, the market share will reach a higher level. At present, the company's capacity under construction includes Anhui production base phase III / IV Project (Fengyang), 750000 ton Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) equipment ultra-thin ultra-high transmittance panel manufacturing project (Jiaxing), with a total investment of 10.1 billion yuan and a total of 111200t / D production lines. It is expected to release 7 1200t / D production lines in 2022 and form a photovoltaic glass capacity of 20600t / D by the end of 2022. In addition, the company plans to build four 1200t / D production lines in phase I in Nantong. At present, the project is in the process of approval. After completion, it will plan to promote the construction of two 1200t / D production lines in phase II. After all the capacity planning of the company is implemented, it will form a capacity scale of 32600t / D, further expand the leading advantage and consolidate the leading position.
Acquire quartz sand resources and strengthen cost advantages. The company has completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Anhui Dahua Dongfang mining and Anhui Sanli mining, with a total recoverable reserves of 43.86 million tons of quartz sand and a transaction consideration of 3.344 billion yuan. In recent years, the price of quartzite raw ore has risen sharply. According to the price description of low iron quartz raw ore from 2017 to 2021 issued by Anhui Glass Industry Association, the average price of quartzite raw ore (including tax) has increased from 95 yuan / ton in 2017 to 200 yuan / ton in 2021, cagr20 46%, considering that the current supply and demand situation has not changed, it is expected that the subsequent raw ore price of quartzite will remain high, and it is not ruled out that the price will rise further. According to the calculation of 500000 tons / 100 million square meters of 3.2mm glass quartz sand consumption, the exploitable amount can produce 8.8 billion square meters of photovoltaic glass, and the corresponding components are about 1800gw. At present, the company has completed the acquisition, which is expected to greatly improve the self supply rate of quartz sand and further reduce the cost.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.251/4.155/4.756 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 26.8/21.0/18.3 times of the valuation, and maintain the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the installed demand of new ground power stations is lower than expected, and the substitution effect of transparent backplane is enhanced.
