\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 893 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing revenue (RMB 5.4 billion, + 44.3%) and net profit attributable to the parent company (RMB 66 million, + 92.5%). Exceeding market expectations.
2022q1 revenue increased by 44.3% year-on-year, due to the acceleration of air launch delivery and the increase in the proportion of new products; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 92.5% year-on-year, the gross profit margin increased month on month compared with 21q4, and the overall operating performance was upward. On the whole, the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 10.53%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.81pct and an increase of 0.3pct compared with 21q4; The net interest rate was 1.57%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.34pct and a month on month decrease of 1.01pct. Among the expenses during the period, the sales expenses increased by 128.23% year-on-year due to the increase of after-sales support tasks; The ratio of sales expenses, financial expenses, administrative expenses and R & D expenses was + 0.7 / - 4.35 / - 0.41 / - 0.51pct year-on-year respectively. In addition, the accounts payable of 2022q1 company increased by 44.78% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of production tasks, the increase of purchasing raw materials and supporting products, strong demand and the high prosperity of the industrial chain.
Industry: aeroengine is a track worthy of long-term gold digging: in a strategic sense, military aeroengine is the mainstay of aviation power, and commercial aeroengine is the crown pearl of manufacturing power. From the perspective of investment, the aviation development industry has five characteristics: large enough space, long enough track, long enough product application cycle, high enough barriers and good enough industrial pattern.
1. The space is large enough and the track is long enough: the three-dimensional dimensions of military aviation, commercial aviation and aviation maintenance shape the space for the rapid development of aviation industry. We expect that the overall market space of China's aviation industry will exceed 100 billion yuan in the next seven years.
2. The product application cycle is long enough: the development of Hangfa has the characteristics of high investment and high return. Once the development is successful, the application cycle of the product is long, a mature product can be sold for 30 ~ 50 years, and the threat of competition is very small. The manufacturer can enjoy the benefits brought by the upgrading of technology and industrial chain at ease; In particular, a series of models derived from core opportunities will enrich the application cycle of products.
3. The barrier is high enough and the industrial structure is good enough: the technical barrier of aeroengine is high enough that there is a minority oligopoly in the world. Internationally, Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) is also one of the few enterprises that can independently develop aeroengine products.
Company: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) as the only listed company for the general assembly of military aero-engines in China, it will fully benefit from the high certainty and long-term nature of the high growth of China's aviation development track Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) is the only enterprise in China that can develop a full spectrum of military aeroengines such as turbojet, turbofan, turboshaft, turboprop and piston. It is the only platform for the overall listing of aviation power under AVIC. The landing of large advance receipts directly locks in the high prospect of high certainty in the next few years. We expect that the "14th five year plan" Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) will enter a period of rapid growth.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.426 billion, 1.782 billion and 2.33 billion respectively, and EPS to be RMB 0.53, 0.67 and 0.87 respectively, with corresponding valuations of 71x, 57x and 43x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: military orders are less than expected; The development process of the new aircraft model was lower than expected.
