\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 795 Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) )
Event:
Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) released the first quarterly report of 2022: the company achieved revenue of 46.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 877 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.31%.
Key investment points:
Both volume and price rose, and the company's revenue increased by 19.8% year-on-year.
1) volume: the on grid power of 2022q1 company increased by 4.71% year-on-year, of which the photovoltaic power generation increased rapidly, and the on grid power of thermal power / hydropower / wind power / photovoltaic was 898.3/75.52/39.2/148 million kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9% / + 4.8% / - 1.4% / + 83.7%.
2) price: the average on grid price of 2022q1 company is 0.453 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9% and a month on month increase of 15.39%. The rise of average on grid electricity price is mainly due to the rise of coal-fired electricity price and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity reached 94.1% (an increase of 40.1pct year-on-year and 25.6pct month on month).
Turning losses into profits in the first quarter is optimistic about the further improvement of thermal power business in the second quarter. In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.056 billion yuan, which was significantly improved from - 3.711 / - 516 billion yuan in 2021q4 / 2021q3; The net profit per kilowatt hour was 0.010 yuan / kWh and -0.034 yuan / kwh in 2021q4, a year-on-year decrease of 48.5% in 2021q1. Under the regulatory constraints of increasing coal production and supply and strong coal price, we are optimistic about the subsequent decline of coal price, and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) is a subsidiary of national energy group, the controlling shareholder of the company. The company's coal long-term association coverage is expected to be further guaranteed, and the company's coal-fired power generation performance is expected to be further improved in the second quarter.
Develop new energy business, and the installed capacity of new energy is expected to exceed 40gw by the end of 2025. By the end of 2021, the company's holding installed capacity was 99.81gw, including thermal power 77.4gw, hydropower 14.97gw, wind power 7.07gw, accounting for 7.08% and photovoltaic 0.37gw. The company plans to add 35gw of new energy installed capacity in the 14th five year plan, and the installed capacity of clean energy accounts for more than 40%. In 2021, the new installed capacity of the company's new energy is 0.89gw. Assuming that the new installed capacity of the company's new energy in 2022 is 4.84gw of planned production, the company needs to add 29.3gw of new installed capacity from 2023 to 2025, with an average annual increase of 9.76gw. In 2022, the company will accelerate the development of new energy. In 2022, it plans to obtain more than 10GW of new energy resources, approve 9.31gw, start 6.66gw and put into operation 4.84gw. The company's new energy business is expected to drive the high growth of performance in the 14th five year plan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) is an energy platform subordinate to the national energy group. It belongs to the same group as China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) and we are optimistic that the thermal power business performance of the company is expected to be further improved in the second quarter; The company's new energy installed capacity may exceed 40gw at the end of the 14th five year plan, which is expected to drive high performance growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.383/89.19/10.213 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 8.44/6.04/5.27 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected; The new installed capacity is less than expected; Coal prices rose sharply; Electricity price reduction; Intensified industry competition, etc.
