\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 779846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.08%; The net investment income was 27.164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.533 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 18.575 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 4.68%. In 2021q4, the total operating revenue was 227133 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 6.71% / + 21.71% respectively; The net investment income was 8.581 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 77.14% / + 5.08% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.183 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 10.57% / – 40.54% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 558 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 78.20% / – 90.95% respectively. In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 182472 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 3.50% / – 19.66% respectively; The net investment income was 5.819 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 14.53% / – 32.19% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.516 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 19.44% / + 31.85% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 4.953 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 20.36% / + 787.87% respectively.
2021q4 performance: under the influence of chip shortage, SAIC’s sales volume fluctuation affects the overall revenue performance. 2021q4 revenue was – 6.71% / + 21.71% month on month, mainly due to the group’s overall wholesale sales of 1.8445 million vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 7.19% / + 39.55% respectively. The adjustment of accounting standards lowered Q4 gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 company was 5.14%, with a month on month ratio of -7.28 / – 6.41pct respectively, mainly due to the re presentation of transportation expenses from sales expenses to operating costs. 2021q4 sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was -4.41 / + 0.17 / + 1.27 / + 0.17pct year-on-year and -4.14 / + 0.68 / + 0.52 / + 0.13pct month on month respectively. The large year-on-year increase in R & D expense ratio was mainly due to the company’s further increase in R & D investment in new energy, intelligent networking and digital technologies. Investment income grew steadily month on month. 2021q4’s net investment income increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the company’s confirmation of the disposal income of its subsidiary global auto share investment of 2.6 billion yuan. The month on month growth was mainly due to the month on month growth of SAIC Volkswagen / SAIC GM sales + the improvement of single vehicle profitability. The wholesale sales of SAIC Volkswagen / SAIC GM 2021q4 were 3916 / 429700 vehicles respectively, with a month on month increase of + 23.13% / + 34.24% respectively.
Performance of 2022q1: the revenue of 2022q1 was – 3.50% / – 19.66% month on month, respectively. Under the influence of chip shortage + epidemic, the wholesale sales volume was 1220600, which was + 6.83% / – 33.83% month on month, respectively. Q1 gross profit margin was 9.37%, with a month on month ratio of -1.72 / + 4.23pct respectively, mainly due to the adjustment of accounting standards. The ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses was – 1.30 / + 0.54 / + 0.29 / + 0.00pct year on year and + 2.71 / – 0.35 / – 1.02 / – 0.10pct month on month respectively. The change of Q1 investment income on a month on month basis is basically consistent with the change of sales volume of the joint venture. SAIC Volkswagen sold 331200 vehicles, with a month on month basis of + 32.97% / – 15.41% respectively; SAIC GM sold 274500 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 18.24% / – 36.10% respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the rising price of raw materials, chip shortage and the continuous impact of the epidemic, we lowered the expected net profit attributable to the parent company from Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2022 to 2023 from 26.2/27.1 billion yuan to 25.5/26.8 billion yuan, and the expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was 28.9 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.19/2.29/2.48 yuan and PE of 7.30/6.95/6.44 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
