The model cycle and capacity cycle perfectly resonate, and the decisive battle 2025 smart car super cycle. According to the previous report “one of the series of reports on automobile revolution: the golden decade of electric intelligence has come, and the long bull of supply chain upgrading and reconstruction has started”, we have made hypothetical forecasts of automobile sales in 2022 under different scenarios. From 2022h2 to 2025, China’s passenger cars will enter a new round of intensive launch cycle. At the same time, the zhugra cycle (about 10 years) of a new round of vehicles in China’s automobile industry is started, and intellectualization is expected to relay, and electrification will become the core driving force. Based on Minsheng automobile investment clock system, the cycle of one round of vehicle model is about 40 months, and the capacity cycle from 2022 to 2032 will go through three inventory cycles. In the first inventory cycle from 2022 to 2025, electrification and intellectualization show a double spiral development. The penetration rate of L3 intelligent vehicle is expected to re carve the popularization curve of electrification in the past few years and enter the rapid introduction period.
With the evolution of industrial integration, the research on China’s intelligent vehicle industry chain needs a cross industry professional database. SAE and NHTSA in the United States have corresponding classification standards for automatic driving, while IHS Markit’s prediction of L2-L4 penetration supports our judgment of “decisive battle 2025”. However, due to the further clear definition of L3-L4 level driverless, relevant testing standards and supporting laws and regulations need to be improved, and the commercialization of L3 level driverless is currently in the industrial introduction period, and the relevant data research system needs to be improved. Therefore, in order to better track the micro changes of the automobile industry in the wave of intellectualization, we have divided the transition stages of L2 and L3 into finer granularity for the first time: L2 + is defined as the function of passing lane scenes such as L2 overlay lane change; L2 + + is defined as L2 superimposed high-precision map, combed the industrial chain and prospectively built a professional database.
Key words of intelligent industry feast: back feeding electric, independent rise, brand upward attack. Electrification and intellectualization are in a double helix relationship. In the future, with the rapid improvement of electric vehicle penetration, intelligent vehicles are expected to increase rapidly. At the same time, the ultimate experience brought by intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will further improve the power of electric vehicle products, which is expected to reverse promote the further improvement of electrification penetration. At this stage, L2 penetration rate of joint venture brand standard configuration is high. Compared with Europe and the United States, China has more excellent industry and enterprise dividends in the process of electric transformation, and automatic driving involves independent and controllable core data. In the future, with the overall improvement of China’s independent brand share and ASP, Chinese enterprises are expected to fully benefit from the intelligent industry feast. China’s automobile industry has entered a mature stage. As an important branch of high-end manufacturing industry, the future development trend of the industry is to replace the existing hardware through intelligent upgrading, and the improvement of the average price of the industry by intellectualization is expected to lead the brand of motor car enterprises to attack and reshape the value.
Automatic driving: according to the data of traffic compulsory insurance, the terminal penetration rate of passenger car 22m2 with standard L2 (including L2 +, L2 +) function has increased to about 30%, and L2 (including L2 +, L2 +) automatic driving has ushered in an accelerated popularization period. 1) equipped with camera, with high perception rate; The current penetration rate of millimeter wave radar is nearly 7%, and more than 200000 models are the main models; The turning point of lidar has reached; 2) Decision making level: the permeability of high-precision map is about 0.34%; The chip configuration is characterized by the L2 + level Hwa function penetration. At present, the Hwa carrying rate of European and medium-sized vehicles is relatively positive. 3) Executive level: the carrying rate of independent brands of braking system promotes the rapid penetration of IBS and benefits local suppliers; The penetration rate of air suspension is low and there is more room for improvement. The penetration rate of European and autonomous vehicle series is leading, and the price belt of vehicle configuration is gradually sinking.
Intelligent cockpit: the demand for multi-modal interaction scenes continues to upgrade, including 1) multi-modal interaction: high-end models help accelerate the landing of multi-modal interaction scenes, in which the penetration of head up display is accelerated; The carrying rate of touch screen on fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is about 80%. 2) Internet connection upgrade: the Internet of things helps the continuous upgrading of automobile Internet connection. In February 2022, the OTA penetration rate exceeded 40%, maintaining a high-speed growth trend. 3) Body scene: the penetration rate of personalized configuration has increased rapidly, among which the standard configuration trend of more than 200000 models of atmosphere lamps is obvious, and the carrying rate of Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicles with atmosphere lamps is nearly 40% in February 2022; Panoramic skylight: the carrying rate of models above 300000 exceeds 80%. At present, the carrying rate of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Byd Company Limited(002594) is about 50%.
Risk tips: 1) the squeezing effect of real estate on consumption is higher than expected; 2) The chip shortage was alleviated less than expected; 3) The recovery of the epidemic was not as expected; 4) The higher than expected rise in the cost of raw materials led to the low gross profit margin of the automotive industry.
