\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 398 Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 20.188/24.91/2.386 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12% / 40% / 38%, still a decrease of 9% / 22% / 21% compared with 19 years, and the performance was lower than expected. 21q4 company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 6.032/4.44/417 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2% / - 10% / - 11%, slowing down month on month. Operating cash flow / net profit was 175%, mainly due to the increase in accounts payable, provision for asset impairment, depreciation and amortization of long-term deferred expenses. 22q1 company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent were RMB 5.212/7.23/726 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 5% / - 14% / - 13%, and the growth rate further slowed down. The dividend per share is 0.51 yuan and the dividend yield is 10.4%.
Analysis and judgment:
The revenue of main brands gradually recovered, and the direct marketing channels expanded rapidly. (1) By brand, the revenue of main brand / San Keno / other brands was RMB 15.133/22.60/2.042 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10% / 9% / 27%, an increase of - 13% / 4% / 85% compared with 2019, accounting for 75% / 11% / 10% respectively. (2) In terms of channels, the online / offline revenue was RMB 2.726/16.709 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 33% / 9%. The online olai revenue in spring and autumn was nearly 500 million; Among them, the revenue of Direct stores, franchise stores and associated stores were RMB 2.473/14.701 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 8%. The number of all brand stores of the company was 7652, and the number of main brand stores was 5672, with a net increase of 129 (an increase of 2%), of which the number of Direct stores increased by 241 to 727, with a growth rate of 50%, corresponding to - 4% of the same store; The number of franchisees and associated stores decreased by 2%.
The growth of gross profit margin is due to offline contribution, and the decline of online gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase of activities. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 40.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.22pct, an increase of 1.18pct compared with 19 years; 22q1 gross profit margin was 45.26%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.35pct. In terms of splitting: 1) in terms of brands, the gross profit margin of main brands / San Keno / other brands was 40.01% / 51.57% / 44.14% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.02 / - 1.14/5.66pct. The increase of gross profit margin of main brands was mainly due to the improvement of discount rate; 2) In terms of channels, the online / offline gross profit margin was 36.19% / 42.71% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.28/4.54pct. The decline of online gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase of online promotion activities. We estimate that the online gross profit margin will be maintained at 35% - 40% in the future; The gross profit margin of offline retail stores, franchise stores and associated stores were 63.49% / 36.64% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.33/2.89pct. 22q1 gross profit margin increased by 2.35pct to 45.26%.
The net interest rate has not returned to the pre epidemic level, mainly due to the increase in the cost rate caused by the accelerated opening of Direct stores and the increase in online investment. The net profit in 2021 was reduced from 0.76/0.86 yuan to 0.6/0.71 yuan, the new 24-year EPS was 0.79 yuan, the closing price was 4.95 yuan on April 28, 2022, and the corresponding 22 / 23 / 24pe was 8 / 7 / 6x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is uncertain, the cultivation of new brands is less than expected, the terminal inventory is at high risk and systemic risk. The rate was 11.89%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33pct and a decrease of 2.53pct compared with 19 years. In terms of expense rate, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate in 21 years was 16.11% / 5.54% / 0.62% / 0.03% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.73 / - 1.89 / 0.16 / - 0.12pct. 22q1 sales expense rate increased by 4.08 CPT to 17.35%, and net profit rate decreased by 1.39 PCT to 13.57%.
Inventory growth and inventory turnover efficiency. The company's inventory at the end of the year was 8.12 billion yuan, an increase of 9% compared with the beginning of the period, but a decrease of 12% compared with Q3. The inventory of 22q1 was 8.562 billion, an increase month on month. The number of inventory turnover days in 21 years was 233 days, a year-on-year decrease of 30 days, and the turnover efficiency was improved. The turnover days of accounts receivable were 18 days, unchanged year-on-year and increased by 6 days compared with 19 years.
Investment advice
Looking forward to the future, (1) the main brands are expected to gradually usher in the recovery of the same store after the epidemic improves, and 150200 stores are expected to be opened this year; 2) We estimate that ovv21 has achieved profitability, and Yingshi, boys and girls and Hailan optimization are expected to break even this year; (3) HLA + is expected to continue to expand stores in the first and second tier. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the income forecast for 22 / 23 years is lowered from 25 / 27.5 billion yuan to 21.7 / 24 billion yuan, the new 24-year income forecast is 26.3 billion yuan, the net profit forecast for 22 / 23 years is lowered from 3.3/3.7 billion yuan to 2.6/3.05 billion yuan, and the new 24-year net profit forecast is 3.39 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS
