\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 was 255 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 20% / + 47%. The median value of performance forecast was in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company's revenue was 6.328 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 71.51% / + 2.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 255 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 20.43% / + 46.69%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 207 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 5.38% / + 100.56%; In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of Q1 in 2022 was 11.21%, with a month on month ratio of -2.37pct / + 1.19pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 4.03%, with a month on month ratio of -1.71pct/1.22pct; Deducting the net interest rate not attributable to the parent company of 3.28%, the same month on month ratio was -2.06pct / + 1.61pct. Non recurring gains and losses are mainly government subsidies, which are in the median value of performance forecast and in line with market expectations.
In 2022, Q1 shipped about 50000 tons, with a slight increase month on month, and a single ton recovered. However, the price rise of liquid alkali still affected some profits. We expect the company to ship about 50000 tons in Q1 in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 35% and a slight increase month on month. At present, the company's production has not been affected by the epidemic. We expect Q2 production to increase by 10% - 15% month on month in 2022. With the release of new production capacity, we expect the annual shipment to be 280000 tons, an increase of 60% at the same time; In terms of profitability, the non net profit deducted per ton of Q1 of the company in 2022 is about 4100 yuan / ton, which is significantly recovered from the 2200 yuan / ton of Q4 in 2021. However, due to the high price of Q1 liquid alkali in 2022, we expect that the non net profit deducted per ton of the company will still be about 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of liquid alkali is still in the rising channel. The increase of the self supply proportion of nickel sulfate in Q2 in 2022 is expected to hedge the rise of some costs and the increase of single ton profit month on month, With the 20000 ton nickel smelting capacity of Q3 phase I put into operation in 2022, we expect that the annual profit per ton in 2022 is expected to increase year-on-year.
China's outward production expansion will be accelerated, the trend of high growth will be maintained in 2022, and the integrated layout will be further deepened. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of ternary precursor of the company is 200000 tons and that of Co3O4 is 30000 tons. With the completion and operation of 60000 tons in the west, 35000 tons in the middle and 180000 tons in the south, we expect the production capacity of the company to exceed 500000 tons by the end of 2022. The company deeply binds customers such as LG, Tesla, dangsheng and Xia tungsten, and enters the Ningde supply chain. We expect the company to ship 280000 tons in 2022, an increase of 60%, including 250000 tons of Sanyuan + and 28000 tons of Co3O4 +, of which SK and dangsheng doubled, and Tesla began to self-made. Upstream, the company's phase I 20000 ton nickel resources project in Indonesia is progressing smoothly. The company expects Q3 to be gradually completed and put into operation in 2022, and the phase II project will be carried out simultaneously; At the same time, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) and a cooperation agreement with Tengyuan cobalt industry to ensure the supply of raw materials.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the previous forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.859/30.80/4.321 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 98% / 66% / 40%, corresponding to PE of 26x / 16x / 11x, give 40xpe in 2022, target price of RMB 122.8, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
