\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 319 The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) )
Matters:
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was 87 yuan (yoy-13%); The total premium of property insurance is 152.1 billion yuan (YoY + 12%), and the total premium of life insurance is 80.2 billion yuan (YoY + 18%).
Ping An View:
Property insurance: the loss ratio stabilized, the comprehensive cost ratio decreased, and the premium and underwriting profit increased steadily. The premium of 22q1 property insurance was 152.1 billion yuan (YoY + 12%), of which the pressure on the base of automobile insurance was relieved and the growth trend of premium was better - the premium of 22q1 automobile insurance was 63.8 billion yuan (YoY + 11%), accounting for 42% of the premium of property insurance; The premium of non auto insurance was 88.4 billion yuan (YoY + 13%). Specifically, the premiums of agricultural insurance, Italian health insurance and guarantee insurance were + 29%, + 12% and + 204% year-on-year respectively. In terms of profitability, the property insurance expense ratio is 25.1% (yoy-0.3pct), the compensation ratio is 70.5% (YoY + 0.2pct), the comprehensive cost ratio is 95.6% (yoy-0.1pct), and the underwriting profit is 4.3 billion yuan (YoY + 11%) and the net profit is 8.7 billion yuan (yoy-3%). Among them, the comprehensive cost rate of automobile insurance is 96.0% (YoY + 1.4pct).
Life insurance: the long-term regular payment business is under pressure, the single payment drives the growth of new orders, and NBV is expected to decline. 22q1 long term insurance first year premium 39.5 billion yuan (YoY + 38%), of which long-term premium 13 billion yuan (yoy-11%), single payment + 90%.
The capital market fluctuated violently, and the rate of return on investment decreased greatly. It is estimated that the total return on investment of 22q1 is 5.3% (yoy-1.2pct) and the comprehensive return on investment is 0.7% (yoy-4pct).
Investment suggestion: the risk of guarantee insurance is basically cleared, and the underwriting profit of auto insurance of leading insurance enterprises is expected to improve. The dilemma of life insurance industry still exists. The macro environment outside China intensifies market fluctuations. We adjust the assumptions of new orders, nbvm, return on investment and discount rate of reserves. The EVPs forecast from 2022 to 2024 is reduced from 5.81 yuan, 6.48 yuan and 7.29 yuan to 5.69 yuan, 6.31 yuan and 7.10 yuan respectively. The current stock price of the company corresponds to about 0.74 times of PEV in 2022 and maintains the "neutral" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the equity market fluctuates greatly, β Property led to increased volatility of the sector market. 2) The average vehicle premium fell more than expected, the loss ratio increased more than expected, and the underwriting profit of vehicle insurance was under pressure. 3) Natural disasters occurred frequently, and the compensation of agricultural insurance and enterprise property insurance exceeded expectations.
