\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) experienced expansion and development at the end of the 20th century, and entered a period of in-depth adjustment and all-round reform in the 21st century. After the “Second Entrepreneurship”, it radiated new vitality and stepped into the road of take-off . At the end of the 20th century, the big business model was adopted. Although it quickly seized the market, it left some disadvantages. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the company has actively reformed its brand and channel strategy, improved its brand value and refined its channels; In 2017, after a second start-up, the company entered a new journey of recovery with strong development momentum under the combination of brand culture construction, digital transformation, product system optimization, equity incentive and other measures. The new leadership is young and knowledgeable, which will also inject new and vigorous development force into the development of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the future. In the future, on the basis of continuing the original path, absorbing excellent experience and optimizing management strategy, it is expected to lead the company to a higher level.
Optimize the product system and dig deep into the brand value. Focus on the company’s high-end wine + double drive series Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) profound cultural heritage makes the brand image deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. On the basis of its cultural heritage, it continuously improves the brand value, deepens the cultivation of consumers and increases the stickiness of brands and consumers. At the same time, we will downsize the series of liquor brands, optimize the brand structure, promote the iterative upgrading of the core single product Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) at the same time, lay out ultra-high-end products, improve the brand value status and develop the series of liquor. We expect that the contribution of high-end liquor to revenue is expected to continue to increase. The development of refined, digital and flat channels will comprehensively improve the control power. In 2019 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) build 21 marketing war zones and set up 60 marketing bases. The flat marketing organization that adapts measures to local conditions has greatly improved the market response and refined operation level; The company also launched a profit sharing system to accurately grasp the dynamic sales and services from the channel by using digitization, and link offline and online stores; Online group purchase system, develop new retail and unify online channel management and control; Establish a supply chain company, strengthen the construction of terminal channels, jointly broaden the company’s development space and help achieve strategic objectives.
Looking forward to the future, with the help of internal drastic innovation and reform and external assistance, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has passed its internal and external fluctuation adjustment period, and its development potential is expected to be further released. With its strong product reform and channel management reform, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ‘s recovery and Tengfei are just around the corner.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company’s fundamentals continue to improve. The double wheel drive of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) + Series liquor is expected to further increase the market share while increasing the price in the future. The policy at the industry level can superimpose the valuation inflection point, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will make steady progress in the future. Recently, the price of some products of the company has been adjusted. Among them, the guide price of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is 1499 yuan, which is close to Feitian Maotai, and the rated price has been increased from 965 to 980 yuan. We believe that the rated price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in 22 years is expected to stand firmly in the price band of 1000 yuan, improve channel profits, and the enthusiasm of dealers is expected to be improved. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 66.208/78.124/92.208 billion yuan in 21-23 years, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5% / 18% / 18.03%, net profit of 23.261276.27/32.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.57% / 18.77% / 18.31%, and EPS of 5.99/7.12/8.42 yuan / share. Using the comparable company valuation method, the company will be given 30 times PE for 22 years and the target price of 213.7 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, food safety risk, product price rise is not up to expectations, competitive products increase market investment, intensify competition, repeated epidemics, etc
